Weekend rail closures for up to 14 years if HS2 is scrapped

The aim of HS2 is to get trains running as fast as 250mph between London and Birmingham from 2026. Photograph: HS2/PA

Alternatives to building Britain's second high-speed rail link which would instead upgrade existing lines could need 14 years of weekend closures to complete, according to government-sponsored studies releasedon Monday.

The claims were published as ministers battle to maintain cross-party support for the controversial HS2 project connecting London to the north and before a crucial week for the scheme in parliament.

The government has faced a backlash from backbenchers against the project, which is expected to cost up to £42.6bn, has overrun its original budget and cuts a swath through many marginal Conservative constituencies.

The studies, prepared by Network Rail and the management consultancy Atkins, found that the east coast mainline, midland mainline and west coast mainline would require 2,770 weekend closures (144,000 hours of work) if they were to be improved so they could replace the intended capacity of HS2.

Modelling a typical weekend, the reports argue that a journey from London to Leeds could be increased by two hours and 10 minutes to more than four and a half hours while the work is completed. A journey between Huntingdon and Peterborough would be doubled to an hour.

Labour votes may be needed this week for the coalition government's proposals to continue their passage through the Commons as a number of Tory MPs are preparing to rebel and vote against a bill that paves the way for HS2.

Senior Labour sources have hinted that the party may withdraw support for the project, particularly if it goes beyond its allotted £42bn budget. The shadow energy secretary, Caroline Flint, told BBC1's Sunday Politics: "HS2 has never had a blank cheque from the Labour party. [Shadow transport secretary] Mary Creagh has said if the prices are coming in too high then we will review our decision when we come back to vote on it next April.

"We have to look for value for money and we have to look at how it benefits the country."

A government source said that the studies' evidence should help to persuade MPs of the scheme's merits. "We need to do something because our railways are nearly full, but the alternative to HS2 is a patch and mend job that would cause 14 years of gridlock, hellish journeys and rail replacement buses. The three main routes to the north would be crippled and the economy would be damaged."

The government's business case, which will be released in full on Tuesday, argues that the alternative plans are unworkable.

"Network Rail's judgment is that the scale of service closures involved across three main lines makes the alternatives very unattractive.

"While some works could be programmed to coincide in terms of network downtime, this scale of work on the existing network would entail 14 years of weekend closures to allow the necessary upgrade works to be carried out. With work on multiple (parallel) routes, the scope to use adjacent main lines for diversionary routes is also diminished," it states.

According to extracts from the Network Rail report, consultants examined a number of possible schemes as ways of expanding capacity.

"During construction, the effect of these schemes occurring simultaneously could be to increase the weekend journey time from Leeds to London by 130 minutes or more, almost double the normal scheduled time and possibly transferring to bus replacement services," it found.

Atkins added that the upgrades would also cause properties to be torn down. "Addition schemes are likely to require some demolition of residential and commercial properties at specific locations, for example four-tracking schemes are likely to acquire land outside the existing railway boundary which could result in property demolition."

The aim of HS2 is to get trains running as fast as 250mph between London and Birmingham from 2026, with branches to Manchester and Leeds via Sheffield planned for 2033.

But the estimated cost of the project has risen from £34.2bn to £42.6bn – plus £7.5bn for rolling stock.

The chief secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, maintained that ministers remained confident that HS2 will be completed under budget.

The public accounts committee found last month that the Department for Transport was failing to present a "convincing strategic case" and that its arguments were based on "fragile numbers, out-of-date data and assumptions which do not reflect real life".

Alexander told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "The real cost is the budget that we set out in June this year – £42.6bn. It hasn't changed at all. That number includes within it a significant amount of contingency.

"I'm very confident that, as we work through the project and deliver it, we will not just deliver it within that budget but, like the Olympic Stadium project, under budget too."

The deputy Labour leader, Harriet Harman, played down comments by the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, comparing the project to the Millennium Dome. Harman said Balls had been asked about the Dome by a Mail on Sunday journalist and had not volunteered the comparison to the white elephant project.

Jack Straw, the former foreign secretary and MP for Blackburn, voiced support for the project, which he said would "hugely benefit" people in the north of England.

Appearing on Murnaghan on Sky days after announcing that he would be standing down from parliament, Straw said: "If we get this extra capacity into Manchester, into Leeds, into Sheffield, into Liverpool ... that will hugely benefit and trigger much greater usage of the railway services as well as helping this economic regeneration of the country and particularly this area."

Bob Crow, general secretary of the transport union RMT, said the "political posturing" over HS2 was a smokescreen designed to delay investment in the railways.

He said politicians were showboating while Britain fell behind other European countries on rail modernisation.