A Danish cargo vessel is due to load Syria's chemical arms stockpile and transfer it to a specially adapted US ship in a delicate and unprecedented operation early in the new year, according to the world'schemical weapons watchdog's current plans.
The plans being drawn up by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) have not been finalised. It is not yet clear, for example, whether the transfer between the two ships of about 500 tonnes of lethal chemicals, including nerve agents, will be done on sea or when both vessels are docked.
Both options have serious challenges. A sea transfer from one ship to another with such a hazardous cargo would be fraught with danger. But so far, no Mediterranean port has agreed to host the transfer on land, say weapons experts briefed on the plan by the OPCW yesterday in The Hague.
The US ship, the Maritime Administration MV Cape Ray, is being fitted in Norfolk, Virginia, with two field deployable hydrolysis systems (FDHS) that will neutralise the chemical weapons agents with the addition of fresh water and other reagents, such as sodium hydroxide and sodium hypochlorite. The Danish ship has so far not been identified but is believed to be a roll-on, roll-off ("ro-ro'') vessel like the Cape Ray.
The direct docking of the Cape Ray at the Syrian port of Latakia is not seen as an option given the hostile relations between Washington and Damascus.
If all goes according to plan, the chemical weapons should leave Latakia by the year's end and the Cape Ray should be ready to sail by 4 January. It will begin processing the chemicals in international waters, but can only do so in calm seas.
The process will be entirely self-contained. The chemical weapons will be piped into the US-made FDHS reactors, which have their own power generators, laboratory and air-filtration systems, and the effluent will be channelled through more pipes to roughly 180 effluent containers on lower decks.
There are enough containers for two-thirds of anticipated waste products. The remaining third will be stored in the containers of reagents used in the FDHS reactors, once they have been emptied. The procedure will not involve any emissions into the environment, the chemical weapons experts briefed on the plan said.
There has been no final decision on where it will be off-loaded for incineration but the effluent could be stored in containers for many months.
The process will be carried out by 36 technicians, monitored by OPCW officials, and the Cape Ray and its 25-strong crew will have a US navy escort, which could provide back-up medical facilities in case of accidents.
"It looks solid," said Jean Pascal Zanders, a Belgian expert who runs a blog on chemical weapons called The Trench. "With regards to safety and security they seem to have things covered. There will be no sea dumping, and no release into the air."
US officials have told the OPCW the process would normally take a month, but they are allowing 45-60 days in case choppy seas delay the work. The deadline for the destruction of chemical weapons by the OPCW is the end of March.
"They have enough time," said Ralf Trapp, a former OPCW official. "It's definitely workable and this is well-established technology. The main concern is getting the material to the port."
The chemical weapons, including sarin and VX nerve agents, are currently in one- and two-tonne drums and a range of less orthodox canisters. But none are thought to be in warhead form in proximity to explosives. They are currently being packed into standard 20-foot containers for road shipping from two marshalling centres, outside Damascus and Homs, ready to be driven to Latakia under OPCW monitoring but Syrian government security.
"This part of the operation is the biggest nightmare because you don't control all the parties to the conflict and after so much fighting, the infrastructure is far from perfect," Trapp said.
After the most dangerous part of the stockpile has been removed, the OPCW plan will focus on the less toxic precursors, which can be directly destroyed in commercial incinerators. The OPCW is considering about three dozen bids by companies around the world. The deadline for the complete destruction of the Syrian chemical arsenal is the middle of next year.
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