Travel alert: An inauspicious August for tourism

LAHORE: 

Whatever recovery of sorts Pakistan’s tourism industry had recorded, the previous month has done a good job in casting a dark shadow over it.

The ongoing political standoff in Islamabad featuring Imran Khan-led PTI and Tahirul Qadri’s PAT against the government has caused quite a bit of damage to the economy. Rupee has depreciated, foreign exchange reserves have slid and the KSE-100 index has seen several days of drastic decrease.

Similarly, the tourism industry has also been adversely affected. Major tourist destinations including Murree, its adjacent spots, Kaghan, Naran, Kashmir and Swat have seen a dip in visitors who tend to go through Islamabad to reach the northern areas.

Among these, Murree, Nathia Gali and Ayubia are the most visited spots because of their accessibility and better infrastructure compared to the rest.

Summer is considered the peak season for local hotels and vendors to earn money. But, unfortunately, this August has not been a favourable one for them. Normally, the sector earns huge profits in summers to sustain for the off seasons.

“Our hotels are usually fully occupied during mid-August and bookings are made in advance, but this political turmoil has proven disastrous for us,” said Hotel One Murree Regional Manager Ali Zeeshan.

There are about 1000 medium- and small-scale hotels and motels along the Murree belt which go up till Abbottabad. The occupancy rates there fell sharply in August.

The hotel chains are claiming around 70-80% low occupancy compared to the previous year. “We have recorded 70% difference this August. We normally have 90% occupancy by August but this year we closed it at 20%,” Zeeshan said.

“People from central, southern Punjab and even from Karachi and other parts of Sindh who usually visit these areas either cancelled or postponed their trips as the government blocked the highway, Grand Trunk Road and the Motorway.”

“Those coming from Sindh usually prefer staying overnight in Lahore or Islamabad before arriving here. Many people book rented cars from hotels or other agencies but sales volume was very low there too,” he said.

“Obviously such leisure trips require money, but since there is a lack of cash flow in the economy, people have postponed their trips,” said Travel Hut Managing Director Wahid Mukhtar.

“Embassies have also advised their citizens to avoid travelling. Hikers, who visited the region, have now headed towards India and Nepal. School and college tours have diminished too. For local tourists, visiting Naran Kaghan areas is also risky as many petrol pumps are closed in the area,” Mukhtar pointed out.

“Seeing the situation, hotels and guest houses closed for business in August, as they saw minimal or no profit coming their way.

“Due to the impediments set on the roads, the area has suffered acute shortage of food items and basic commodities too. Though the supply has been restored, there had been a temporarily hike in prices, which added to the woes of the industry,” said Zeeshan.

Global Competitiveness Report terms Pakistan third least safe country

ISLAMABAD: The downward slide of Pakistan’s overall ranking on Global Competitiveness Index took a break this year, but the country remains the third least safe place on the planet due to fragile security situation, the World Economic Forum said in its latest report.

Based on security parameters, the Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) report 2014-15 that was launched from Switzerland, has placed Pakistan at 142 among 144 surveyed nations.

“The security situation remains alarming and Pakistan is the third least safe of all countries covered, behind only Yemen and Libya.”

Afghanistan is not covered in the report.

Plagued by violent terrorism, per business cost of terrorism Pakistan stood at 139 while on the indicator of business cost of crime and violence it was placed at 132.

According to the report, after two consecutive years of steep decline, Pakistan has remained essentially stable since last year and stood at 129 among 144 nations.

However, the country was ranked low in the most critical and basic areas of competitiveness. Its public institutions are constrained by red tape, corruption, patronage, and lack of property rights protection, according to the report.

Even among the South Asian nations, Pakistan is ranked at the bottom. India was at 71, Sri Lanka 73, Nepal 102, Bhutan 103 and Bangladesh at 109, according to the report.

Inadequate supply of infrastructure, corruption and inefficient government bureaucracy have contributed significantly to problems of doing business in Pakistan.

The report further mentioned the policy instability, access to financing and government instability due to fear of coups as other important factors hurting the business environment in the country.

In terms of quality of electricity supply, Pakistan was clubbed among bottom eleven countries and stood at 133.

Corruption was a matter of serious concern and Pakistan was placed at 123. Similarly, favourtism in decision making by government officials was glaring and the country was ranked at 101.

Owing to a lower inflation rate and a smaller budget deficit compared to the previous year, the country’s macroeconomic situation improved slightly but nevertheless remained dismal at 137. Pakistan’s infrastructure did not improve much and the country stood at 119 among the 144 nations surveyed.

Moreover, the country’s performance in terms of health and education is among the worst of all the countries covered. On the indicator of infant mortality Islamabad was placed at 137 and the ratio was the highest outside sub-Saharan Africa. Pakistan also has one of the lowest enrollment rates in the world and ranked at 132. The GCR stated that the estimates suggested that almost a quarter of children do not go to primary school.

Pakistan’s competitiveness was further penalised by the many rigidities and inefficiencies of its labour market where it stood at 132, though six notches up from previous rating. Female participation in the labor force is the world’s fifth lowest, at 140.

On the index of technological readiness, the potential of information and communication technology is not sufficiently leveraged, and access to ICTs remained low at 114. This reflected in the fact that while its IT exports remain at $327 million on the books, officials admit that informally, exports are as high as $1.5 billion.

Pakistan’s positives were that the country performed comparatively better in the more advanced areas such as financial development where it stood at 72 and 81 on the business sophistication pillar.

The country has been placed among 37 economies whose development is factor-driven, which is the lowest stage among the three stages, spanning from factor-driven to efficiency driven and innovation driven.

Embrace change for a changed future

KARACHI: This is my firm belief that to survive in today’s highly competitive world, everyone needs to have the ability to embrace the power of change.

“Change” is not a new concept of specific to the contemporary world. A pre-Socrates philosopher Heraclitus, in 500BC, stated that “nothing is permanent but change”.

Change is a way of life and happens every day — mostly in small dosage. But, sometimes the change could be significant especially if it relates to technology and demographics. Unfortunately, in Pakistan, policymakers and rulers are seen towing the same line despite lack of positive results.

Leadership and change interwoven

A good leader will bring change that helps the society. It is his duty to inspire and mobilise people, motivating them to move forward. He pushes people to achieve something different and better than the current reality.

If you look at famous personalities such as Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King, Abraham Lincoln, you would see that they executed positive changes that impacted and improved the lives of millions of people.

Pakistan urgently needs to implement “change management” at every level of the society to tackle very serious external and internal challenges including a poor economic track record, lack of good governance, threats to security, political instability, corruption and nepotism.

Some deliberate transformations desperately needed to help Pakistan get back on a prosperous path include:

1. The need to stop following decades-old polices: If one is aware that a certain policy or strategy does not work, it is unwise to stick to it. A case in point is trying to “expand the tax net”, which is a critical factor in fuelling the country’s development engine. Taxing the same captive taxpayers in creative ways will not result in a higher tax/GDP ratio. Government will need to introduce structural changes — come up with a new strategy and target new sectors.

2. Reinvent the “incentive system” for bureaucracy: Bureaucracy is a two-edged sword. An effective bureaucracy acts as lubrication for the economic engine. On the other hand, an inefficient one hinders GDP growth and discourages investment. Currently, our bureaucracy is inefficient, sluggish and tainted. The fastest way to bring change is to incentivise correct behavior as well as to create discipline.

3. Bring change by using global success models: The world is passing us by as our economic growth falls to a crawl. One key source of growth in high populace countries such as India is development of the IT industry. In India, exports of software and IT-enabled services touched $62.6 billion last year. Our policymakers feel they already have attractive IT polices in place yet no visible change is seen in exports. It is about time we reviewed our decade-old IT investment policy and remodelled them.

4. Intellectual property will make a difference: Urgent change is needed to pursue an economy that is fuelled by innovation, growth and investment. This can only happen if Intellectual Property Rights are protected. If new ideas and original thinking cannot be protected, Pakistan will continue to struggle.

One of the biggest flaws of administrations is that they continue to follow old practices and try to solve problems using decades-old solutions.  It is critical that change is embraced as we look to usher in an era of progress and prosperity.

THE WRITER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORPORATE SECTOR AND A SUPPORTER OF MANY SOCIAL ENTERPRISES AND FOUNDATIONS

Paying the price: Gulf eyes Iranian gas as Pakistan delays imports

ISLAMABAD: 

The real war between Iran and the United States, which is supported by many European countries, appears to be over energy supply deals. Under some projects, Iran will be connected to European states, Oman, Iraq and Kuwait by sharing its vast energy reserves.

Iran and Oman have sealed a $60-billion agreement under which Muscat will purchase natural gas from Tehran over the next 25 years. The project includes laying a pipeline costing $1 billion across the Gulf.

The agreement was reached during the visit of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to Muscat in March this year. Around 50% of the gas to be exported to Oman, will be transported onwards to Japan, South Korea and India.

In June, Kuwait became the second country in the Gulf that announced its desire to buy natural gas from Iran, which sits on one of the largest gas reserves in the world.

The eagerness for energy cooperation comes in the backdrop of a historic deal between Iran, the US and five other world powers over the former’s nuclear programme on November 24 last year. Iran accepted strict constraints on the nuclear programme for the first time in a decade in exchange for partial relief from sanctions.

Later in December, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said in a statement Iran was planning to lay a pipeline to ship gas to European nations that were interested in imports. If the programme is agreed and the US and other world powers reach some arrangement with Iran, Pakistan’s long-standing hopes of importing Iranian gas may be finally buried.

The Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline has been stuck for years in the wake of US threat of sanctions. Though Islamabad sought some concessions from the US to clear the way for building the pipeline, but the request was rejected outright.

The deadline – December 2014 – for the start of gas flow under the IP project is approaching fast and Pakistan may face penalties of millions of dollars every day in case of failure to complete its part of the pipeline. Iran has laid its portion of the pipeline.

In place of Iranian gas imports, the US has suggested that Pakistan should consider purchasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and other sources, but it is not a cheaper source of energy.

Crucial talks in Sept

The PML-N government, however, is trying to make some arrangements with Iran to win an extension in the deadline and keep the project alive. The two sides are expected to meet next month to discuss some important proposals, which may pacify the Iranian government, which is upset over failure of Islamabad to start work on the project.

Pakistan insists that it could not press ahead with the project due to the lingering threat of sanctions. Now, it has proposed to Tehran to construct the pipeline from the Gwadar Port under the guise of LNG export, which could be connected to Iran after the sanctions are lifted.

According to an official assessment, the gap between demand and supply of gas is widening in Pakistan and production is expected to drop to about half the existing levels by 2020 if new reserves are not tapped and output is not increased from existing fields.

Gas production will fall from the current 4.47 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 2.53 bcfd in 2019-20 if fresh supplies are not injected into the system.

Experts are of the view that Pakistan should tackle the issue strategically and take it up again with US authorities. They ask why Islamabad is being pressurised when other countries are clinching deals with Iran.

These countries have made economic policies part of their foreign policies and Pakistan should also follow them in securing energy supplies. Otherwise, it will lose an opportunity to secure cheaper gas imports and its economy will collapse under the weight of energy shortages.

Falcao arrives to complete Manchester United move

The 28-year-old has arrived at Carrington for a medical and to finalise terms of his loan deal from Monaco

Radamel Falcao has arrived at Manchester United’s training ground to complete his season-long loan move from Monaco.

The 28-year-old will undergo a medical and finalise the terms of his switch before the transfer window closes at 11pm.

Goal understands that United will pay a £10 million-plus fee for the Colombia international, as well as a significant part of his £300,000-a-week salary.

United are also expected to complete a deal for Ajax defender Daley Blind before the deadline which will take United’s total spending this summer to a figure close to £160m.

Manchester City appeared to be closing in on the signing of Falcao after the striker’s proposed move to Real Madrid fell through at the end of last week.

The Colombian, who required surgery to repair a damaged anterior cruciate ligament in January, was targeted by City as a replacement for Alvaro Negredo, who has agreed to join Valencia on loan.

Arsneal manager Arsene Wenger had also sanctioned a pursuit of Falcao with the same agreement as United have reached with Monaco.

Chicharito: Madrid move a dream come true

The Mexico international is over the moon with his transfer to the Champions League holders and can't wait to get started

Manchester United loanee Javier Hernandez has admitted that joining Real Madrid is a dream come true for him and is keen to prove the Santiago Bernabeu side were right to sign him.

The Mexico international has failed to nail down a regular spot in the United first-team since joining in summer 2010 and signed for Carlo Ancelotti's side on a one-year loan deal on Monday after passing his medical.

Hernandez says he is keen to get started and prove his worth at his new club and insists he doesn't feel pressure in following in the footsteps of compatriot Hugo Sanchez, who won five league titles in the seven years he spent at the club.

"I am delighted to be here and grateful to Real Madrid for giving me this chance. I will do everything I can to help the team. Playing for Real Madrid is a dream come true. Everybody in the world knows Real Madrid," Hernandez said at a press conference.

"Hugo Sanchez had a great career here, but I want to do my own thing and make a name for myself. I will give my all to repay Madrid for the confidence shown in me. I want to win titles with Madrid. 

"A big team cannot rely on one player. You need a team to be successful. And out of all the big clubs in the world, Real Madrid are the biggest."

The 26-year-old could make his official Madrid debut in the Liga match against at home against Atletico after the international break on September 13

Ronaldo: I can’t say what I really think about Real Madrid reshaping

The Ballon d'Or winner has hinted at his dissatisfaction with Real Madrid's transfer policy this summer and insisted Angel Di Maria and Xabi Alonso will be big losses

Cristiano Ronaldo has claimed he "can't say what he thinks" about Real Madrid's summer transfer moves but hinted he was unhappy at the way the club have reshaped their squad.

Xabi Alonso, Angel Di Maria, Diego Lopez and Alvaro Morata have all left the Bernabeu, while Monday saw the reigning European champions make their fourth major signing with Javier Hernandez joining recent arrivals Keylor Navas, Toni Kroos and James Rodriguez.

Fifa Ballon d’Or and Goal 50 winner Ronaldo certainly didn’t offer a glowing endorsement to the club’s activity in the current transfer window which closes tonight.

"I have my strong opinions, but I can’t always say what I think. Otherwise, tomorrow it would be on the front pages and I don’t want that,” he told the press at a media event for watchmaker Tag Heuer.

“But if the president thinks the best for the team is to sign players who joined and leave out others, we must respect and support his decisions.”

The 29-year-old Portugal international admitted the changes in personnel would inevitably result in a change in the team’s style - while the losses of Di Maria and Alonso, cornerstones of the club's Decima success last term to Manchester United and Bayern Munich respectively, would be keenly felt.

“With all the new players the style will change, for better or worse” he said. 

“Di Maria and Xabi were very important to us but now they are gone and we should be happy with the new players. I'm sure we'll be fine.”

Ronaldo is currently recovering from a knee injury that saw him sit out his side’s surprise 4-2 defeat to Real Sociedad at the weekend, but says he expects to back within a week.

“Yesterday I went for a run. I'm sure in a week I'll be back one hundred percent,” he said, before warning his team-mates they cannot repeat the complacent performance that saw them lose a two-goal lead on Sunday.

“It was a strange game, we were 2-0 up after minutes, but then things changed. We have taken it as a lesson that we cannot think a match is already won. We must fight to the end.”