The faltering Kyiv-Moscow arms alliance

In the wake of heightened Russian-Ukrainian tensions, Kyiv is increasingly questioning its military industrial cooperation with Moscow.

Ukraine's state-owned defense conglomerate Ukroboronprom halted all shipments of military goods to Russia immediately after Moscow annexed Crimea.

During the Soviet era, a third of Moscow's defense industry was located in southeastern Ukraine. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukrainian arms producers' capacities shrank almost fivefold, but the country has managed to preserve its scientific and personnel potential to this very day.

Altogether, 130 companies affiliated with defense giant Ukroboronprom and several private arms producers currently owe their existence exclusively to exports, according to Ukraine's Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies (CACDS). More than 45 percent of Ukraine's military exports go to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Ukrainian exports to Russia in 2013 amounted to $1.2 billion (860 million euros) – a third of its total arms sales.

Missile maintenance

'Russian-Ukrainian ties in the military-industrial sector have remained close over the past two decades,' says Serhij Sgurez, director of the Kyiv-based information agency Defence Express. Russia's arms industry relies on Motor Sich airplane engines built in the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhia, Sgurez told DW, adding that turbines from the Zorya-Mashproekt complex in Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine are an important component of Russia's maritime vessels.

Of particular significance, Sgurez notes, is the maintenance of Russian nuclear missiles by Ukrainian experts.

The experts come from Yuzhnoe, the state-owned Ukrainian rocket designer, and Yuzhmash, a manufacturer of missiles, satellites and spacecraft that also built the first Soviet missiles. 'Ukraine possesses exclusive documents on about a third of all missiles currently stationed in Russia,' Sgurez says, adding it is not likely that Russia can swiftly train its own maintenance staff.

It would be incredibly painful for Russia if the Ukrainians stopped servicing RS-20 intercontinental ballistic missiles - dubbed 'satan' by the West, says Russian military expert Alexander Goltz. Ukraine's military industry has technologies the Russians currently depend on, he told DW.

Mutually dependent

About 400 Russian defense companies - more than a third of the country's total - cooperate with Ukraine. Ending those alliances would threaten Russia's state armaments program, according to Goltz.

Russia aims to modernize its entire armed forces by 2020. To gain independence from Ukraine, the country will need to establish more of its own companies, Goltz argues, and that will require time and money. Ukrainian arms producers, in turn, also depend on parts from Russian suppliers.

Both sides benefit from the military industrial cooperation, the military expert contends, adding that ending the cooperation with Russia would also have a negative affect on Ukraine's arms industry, endangering thousands of jobs in the southeastern part of the country. 'Weapons exports are one of the few steady sources of income for Kyiv,' he says.

Modernizing defense

As long as the bilateral government accord on defense industry cooperation isn't terminated, Sgurez rules out a complete halt to military industrial cooperation between Kyiv and Moscow. Although he expects Ukraine's Motor Sich will go ahead and supply Russia with 400 helicopter engines as planned this year, he warns the cooperation with Russia will grow increasingly difficult over time.

Prospects look good, though, for the Ukrainian defense industry to cooperate with EU manufacturers, which are keen to enter the Ukrainian market.

Ukraine urgently needs to modernize its military equipment, Sgurez and 'European technology could help

G7 consults on alternatives to Russian gas

A special meeting of G7 energy ministers is underway in Rome. Ministers from Germany, USA, Canada, Italy, UK, France, and Japan are meeting to discuss how to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas imports.

Until recently, the G7 was the G8 - Russia was the eighth member. But Russia was suspended from the group in light of the geopolitical tussle over Ukraine. Now G7 nations are looking for ways to reduce Russia's economic leverage over Europe, which relies on Russia for about a third of its gas supplies.

Could American LNG replace Russian gas?

USA and Canada have offered to provide Europe with supplies of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, as an alternative. But LNG is more expensive than pipeline gas - and there are other difficulties with the LNG option as well.

Supplying Europe with significant volumes of LNG would require massive investments in LNG tanker ports and years of construction time. And it is unclear whether North American supplies of natural gas, even given the fracking boom, would suffice to replace Russian gas over the long term.

The German Economics and Energy Ministry has said that greater efforts to achieve energy efficiency, for example through better building insulation, should be a key part of Europe's energy security solution

Opinion: Ukraine on the brink of civil war

An inferno could engulf Ukraine with far-reaching consequences. A civil war in the country would divide Europe into two blocs that would oppose each other politically, economically and militarily. Ukraine would sink into chaos and violence. It would be humanitarian disaster. Hundreds of thousands of people would also flee the country on the brink of a civil war.

No one can want a Syrian-type situation in Europe, neither the separatists in Donetsk nor the government in Kyiv.

Nightmare scenario

Such a scenario would also be a nightmare for Moscow and Brussels. Especially neighboring countries such as Russia, Poland and other bordering EU member states would be confronted with suffering people requiring food, medication and temporary shelter.

It doesn't have to come to this scenario. But it's becoming increasingly difficult to halt Ukraine's disintegration, which is being driven not only from within, but also from outside by Russia.

Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, in his nationalistic rhetoric, claims that Ukrainians and Russians are one people. But in truth, he is driving a wedge between people, while at the same time militant extremists with support from Moscow are provoking a war.

Russia's annexation of Crimea, the violent pro-Russian groups in the east and now also Odessa in southern Ukraine have fully changed the coexistence of people in Ukraine in just a matter of weeks. The port city of Odessa on the Black Sea, long treasured as a multicultural and cosmopolitan city, is now a flashpoint.

Russians and Ukrainians have jointly built up Donetsk into one of Ukraine's most important industrial regions. Now the work of generations threatens to be destroyed.

Anger and hatred increasingly dominate the action on both sides. But where are the moderate politicians to approach for support?

More than ever, the government in Kyiv needs to seek a dialog with people in the eastern part of the country. Granted, it has the right to take action against militant separatists, who hide in buildings and take people hostage. But it must put political concepts on the table to unite the country, including the debate on federalism and greater autonomy for the individual regions of Ukraine.

Politicians and entrepreneurs from eastern Ukraine need to do more. They have always played a huge political role in the country. Now many of these influential people are sadly standing by and watching the country go to pieces.

Russia holds the key to preventing civil war

Then there's Russia. If the Kremlin, as it claims, is interested in finding a political solution to the Ukraine crisis, then it should bring the so-called pro-Russian forces to sit down at the negotiating table with Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin continues to mount a campaign against the leadership in the Ukrainian capital. It is stirring unrest in the hope of preventing the planned Ukrainian presidential elections on May 25 because it doesn't want democracy and reform in Ukraine.

The release of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) observers demonstrates Moscow's direct link to the separatists. If Russia wanted to find a political solution to the Ukraine crisis, it could.

The European Union, the Council of Europe and the OSCE as well as the UN Secretary General are already helping.

If Russia wants to prevent a civil war in Ukraine, then it should join the efforts of the international community.

Bernd Johann is head of the Ukrainian department at DW.

Eight more killed in Karachi

KARACHI: Eight more people including a woman was killed in ongoing incident of violence in the metropolis, while explosions at two oil tankers in Kemari oil field and at another tanker near Gulbai also occurred on Tuesday, Geo news reported.

According to police, a man was shot dead while another person sustained injuries in Malir while in Gulshan e Iqbal 13-D two people were also gunned down.Both the persons killed in Gulshan e Iqbal are identified as Moiz Ullah Khan and Irtaza Jaffri who were residents of Nazimabad area.

In Pak Colony, unidentified armed men killed a man, identified as Aziz Bakhsh, and injured his brother Bilal Bakhsh.In Baldia Town, a 50-year old man was shot dead, who is identified as Wazir Shah.T

hree dead bodies including a body of woman were recovered from Mehmoodabad, Sohrab Goth and Orangi Town areas.

Meanwhile, two explosions took place in oil tankers in Kemari Oil Field while another blast also occurred in another tanker near Gulbai. Police said that magnetic device was used in the explosion.

Climate change already extreme says US federal report

Do it now, prepare for climate change, because it’s already here, warns a new report by the American government.

Not only every corner of the United States but the economy and public health are impacted by climate change; extreme weather such as tornadoes in Arkansas last month are forecast to become increasingly common.

The federal report was put together by 300 scientists over four years. President Obama’s main science advisor John Holdren left no room for doubt.

Holdren said: 'The single most important bottom line that shines through all these hundreds of pages is that climate change is not a distant threat. It is something that is happening now. It is affecting the American people now, in important ways.'

One of the gravest consequences cited in the report is the multiplication of forest fires, notably in California, in view of the lengthening summers and the increase in periods of extremely high temperature.

Severe drought, again such as California suffers from, is another backlash of a hotter US. Its average temperature is around one degree Celsius higher than it was in 1880. Storm potential has already been demonstrated: one of the driest summers — the hottest American summer in history — in 2012 — was followed by the devastating Hurricane Sandy.

A graphic depiction of changes in demand for water as a consequence of climate change in the US shows red areas which indicate an up to 50 percent predicted increase. They cover big portions of the country.

The federal climate assessment is meant to help guide policy-making. But conservative critics have slammed it, condemning it as a political tool for the President. Deforestation has to be addressed, vehicle fuel-burning, and how electricity is generated.

Professor Michael B. Gerrard, a specialist in climate change law confirmed the report’s importance.

Gerrard said: 'The president has released a climate action plan, which involves taking a whole set of administrative measures because Congress is not going to take action in the coming years. So the next big thing that is coming out is a proposed set of regulations on coal fired power plants, which are the largest current source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.'

Another example of fearful potential: masses of methane gas are trapped under ice and frozen ground; if that melts, the greenhouse effect will get worse.

Public opinion is being prepared.

South Africa: first post-Nelson Mandela election

South Africa is voting in parliamentary elections, which will also determine the next president.

It’s the first election since Nelson Mandela died, and the first time 'born frees,' people born after white minority rule, may vote.

The ruling ANC has been in power since the first post-apartheid elections in 1994 and is favourite to win a majority, despite its leader Jacob Zuma being dogged by a corruption scandal.

Despite expecting to poll second, the Democratic Alliance lacks mass appeal and has struggled to shed its image as a 'white' party.

Perhaps his most spirited challenge comes from the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), whose leader models himself on Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, even down to the red beret.

EFF’s plans to nationalise land and banks are popular in a country with a jobless rate of over 25 percent.

Former President F.W. de Klerk said tensions between different races and ethnic groups are not as bad as media reports suggest.

'It’s one of the successes of the new South Africa that people are getting along with each other. There is much less tension between races and ethnic groups than appears from media and political leaders sometimes, sort of stimulate at grass root level,' said de Klerk.

Opinion polls suggest there is no doubt about the overall result. ANC support is estimated around 65 percent.

A firm idea of the outcome should emerge early, by Thursday afternoon.

Assad cannot legally deny humanitarian aid, study finds

The roads are lined with trucks full of relief goods that are denied transit. Drivers wait hours for clearance at checkpoints or are told to provide missing documents. Mobilized medical teams of international relief organizations assist sick or wounded people until they are driven away by government and opposition forces. The teams only take small amounts of medical supplies, just in case these should fall into the hands of armed militants.

That is how representatives of international relief organizations, speaking on condition of anonymity, describe the difficulties they encounter day for day in their work in Syria. Again and again, they find themselves reaching their limits, being harassed and prevented from doing their work, and having to take alternative routes to help people. The supreme principle of humanitarian aid - protecting civilians while remaining politically neutral - is no longer fully recognized by the warring parties, they said.

Official approval

For this reason, many relief organizations now operate from neighboring countries to help Syrian civilians in need. From Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey, they drive across the border to Syria - often without permission from the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

All humanitarian aid helpers must have their operations approved by officials in Damascus, even those operations are in regions no longer controlled by the government. And those helpers operating without approval risk having their license for providing humanitarian aid revoked.

In an open letter, an international group of prominent lawyers points to the legal limits to the obstacles and harassment of the Assad government in its dealing with the United Nations and participating humanitarian aid organizations. The letter was initiated by the international non-governmental organization 'Crisis Action' whose mission is to protect civilians in armed conflicts.

No legal recourse

The letter is largely based on a study conducted by the Frankfurt-based international law expert Michael Bothe. In his study, Bothe came to the conclusion that the Assad government has no legal recourse for its action. And especially for its claim of having the right to authorize the work of aid organizations on Syrian soil, Damascus cannot invoke international law. The party with de facto control of a questionable area has that right.

Because the Assad government has lost control over parts of Syria, Bothe argues it cannot claim the right to authorize aid for the whole of the country. 'If aid deliveries doesn't go through a part controlled by a party in the conflict, then this party has nothing to do with that and its consent is also not legally required,' he told DW.

People in need also have the right to receive aid, and no party in the conflict can arbitrarily deny them aid or access to an organization providing it. 'But a government is being arbitrary when it has lost control over an area yet claims the right to authorize aid in that area,' Bothe said. 'It doesn't have that right.'

With their open letter, the study's authors aim to articulate their concerns about the escalating humanitarian catastrophe in Syria; they also view it as a legal appeal. 'The letter calls on the director of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Aid, Valerie Amos, to take a bolder legal position - namely to say that areas not controlled by the government should be able to receive aid from neighboring countries without approval from Damascus,' said Bothe.

Increasing political pressure

No one, however, expects a legally correct argument to persuade Assad to act otherwise but it does create additional political pressure, according to Bothe. The study also contributes to the UN Security Council political-legal evaluation process Syria has been subject to for some time.

'The legal argument naturally plays a role for the Security Council,' said Bothe. 'But I don't want to say it's the only factor.' It is a component, he added, to increase political pressure on Assad and the other Syrian parties involved in the conflict. The added pressure, he argues, could be even greater if more of those responsible in the warring parties understood that it is a war crime to use hunger as a weapon against civilians. This could have significant personal consequences for them.

'If a Syrian leader were to enter Germany, the Federal Attorney General would be obligated to prosecute this person,' Bothe said.