Opinion: Ukraine on the brink of civil war

An inferno could engulf Ukraine with far-reaching consequences. A civil war in the country would divide Europe into two blocs that would oppose each other politically, economically and militarily. Ukraine would sink into chaos and violence. It would be humanitarian disaster. Hundreds of thousands of people would also flee the country on the brink of a civil war.

No one can want a Syrian-type situation in Europe, neither the separatists in Donetsk nor the government in Kyiv.

Nightmare scenario

Such a scenario would also be a nightmare for Moscow and Brussels. Especially neighboring countries such as Russia, Poland and other bordering EU member states would be confronted with suffering people requiring food, medication and temporary shelter.

It doesn't have to come to this scenario. But it's becoming increasingly difficult to halt Ukraine's disintegration, which is being driven not only from within, but also from outside by Russia.

Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, in his nationalistic rhetoric, claims that Ukrainians and Russians are one people. But in truth, he is driving a wedge between people, while at the same time militant extremists with support from Moscow are provoking a war.

Russia's annexation of Crimea, the violent pro-Russian groups in the east and now also Odessa in southern Ukraine have fully changed the coexistence of people in Ukraine in just a matter of weeks. The port city of Odessa on the Black Sea, long treasured as a multicultural and cosmopolitan city, is now a flashpoint.

Russians and Ukrainians have jointly built up Donetsk into one of Ukraine's most important industrial regions. Now the work of generations threatens to be destroyed.

Anger and hatred increasingly dominate the action on both sides. But where are the moderate politicians to approach for support?

More than ever, the government in Kyiv needs to seek a dialog with people in the eastern part of the country. Granted, it has the right to take action against militant separatists, who hide in buildings and take people hostage. But it must put political concepts on the table to unite the country, including the debate on federalism and greater autonomy for the individual regions of Ukraine.

Politicians and entrepreneurs from eastern Ukraine need to do more. They have always played a huge political role in the country. Now many of these influential people are sadly standing by and watching the country go to pieces.

Russia holds the key to preventing civil war

Then there's Russia. If the Kremlin, as it claims, is interested in finding a political solution to the Ukraine crisis, then it should bring the so-called pro-Russian forces to sit down at the negotiating table with Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin continues to mount a campaign against the leadership in the Ukrainian capital. It is stirring unrest in the hope of preventing the planned Ukrainian presidential elections on May 25 because it doesn't want democracy and reform in Ukraine.

The release of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) observers demonstrates Moscow's direct link to the separatists. If Russia wanted to find a political solution to the Ukraine crisis, it could.

The European Union, the Council of Europe and the OSCE as well as the UN Secretary General are already helping.

If Russia wants to prevent a civil war in Ukraine, then it should join the efforts of the international community.

Bernd Johann is head of the Ukrainian department at DW.

Eight more killed in Karachi

KARACHI: Eight more people including a woman was killed in ongoing incident of violence in the metropolis, while explosions at two oil tankers in Kemari oil field and at another tanker near Gulbai also occurred on Tuesday, Geo news reported.

According to police, a man was shot dead while another person sustained injuries in Malir while in Gulshan e Iqbal 13-D two people were also gunned down.Both the persons killed in Gulshan e Iqbal are identified as Moiz Ullah Khan and Irtaza Jaffri who were residents of Nazimabad area.

In Pak Colony, unidentified armed men killed a man, identified as Aziz Bakhsh, and injured his brother Bilal Bakhsh.In Baldia Town, a 50-year old man was shot dead, who is identified as Wazir Shah.T

hree dead bodies including a body of woman were recovered from Mehmoodabad, Sohrab Goth and Orangi Town areas.

Meanwhile, two explosions took place in oil tankers in Kemari Oil Field while another blast also occurred in another tanker near Gulbai. Police said that magnetic device was used in the explosion.

Climate change already extreme says US federal report

Do it now, prepare for climate change, because it’s already here, warns a new report by the American government.

Not only every corner of the United States but the economy and public health are impacted by climate change; extreme weather such as tornadoes in Arkansas last month are forecast to become increasingly common.

The federal report was put together by 300 scientists over four years. President Obama’s main science advisor John Holdren left no room for doubt.

Holdren said: 'The single most important bottom line that shines through all these hundreds of pages is that climate change is not a distant threat. It is something that is happening now. It is affecting the American people now, in important ways.'

One of the gravest consequences cited in the report is the multiplication of forest fires, notably in California, in view of the lengthening summers and the increase in periods of extremely high temperature.

Severe drought, again such as California suffers from, is another backlash of a hotter US. Its average temperature is around one degree Celsius higher than it was in 1880. Storm potential has already been demonstrated: one of the driest summers — the hottest American summer in history — in 2012 — was followed by the devastating Hurricane Sandy.

A graphic depiction of changes in demand for water as a consequence of climate change in the US shows red areas which indicate an up to 50 percent predicted increase. They cover big portions of the country.

The federal climate assessment is meant to help guide policy-making. But conservative critics have slammed it, condemning it as a political tool for the President. Deforestation has to be addressed, vehicle fuel-burning, and how electricity is generated.

Professor Michael B. Gerrard, a specialist in climate change law confirmed the report’s importance.

Gerrard said: 'The president has released a climate action plan, which involves taking a whole set of administrative measures because Congress is not going to take action in the coming years. So the next big thing that is coming out is a proposed set of regulations on coal fired power plants, which are the largest current source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.'

Another example of fearful potential: masses of methane gas are trapped under ice and frozen ground; if that melts, the greenhouse effect will get worse.

Public opinion is being prepared.

South Africa: first post-Nelson Mandela election

South Africa is voting in parliamentary elections, which will also determine the next president.

It’s the first election since Nelson Mandela died, and the first time 'born frees,' people born after white minority rule, may vote.

The ruling ANC has been in power since the first post-apartheid elections in 1994 and is favourite to win a majority, despite its leader Jacob Zuma being dogged by a corruption scandal.

Despite expecting to poll second, the Democratic Alliance lacks mass appeal and has struggled to shed its image as a 'white' party.

Perhaps his most spirited challenge comes from the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), whose leader models himself on Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, even down to the red beret.

EFF’s plans to nationalise land and banks are popular in a country with a jobless rate of over 25 percent.

Former President F.W. de Klerk said tensions between different races and ethnic groups are not as bad as media reports suggest.

'It’s one of the successes of the new South Africa that people are getting along with each other. There is much less tension between races and ethnic groups than appears from media and political leaders sometimes, sort of stimulate at grass root level,' said de Klerk.

Opinion polls suggest there is no doubt about the overall result. ANC support is estimated around 65 percent.

A firm idea of the outcome should emerge early, by Thursday afternoon.

Assad cannot legally deny humanitarian aid, study finds

The roads are lined with trucks full of relief goods that are denied transit. Drivers wait hours for clearance at checkpoints or are told to provide missing documents. Mobilized medical teams of international relief organizations assist sick or wounded people until they are driven away by government and opposition forces. The teams only take small amounts of medical supplies, just in case these should fall into the hands of armed militants.

That is how representatives of international relief organizations, speaking on condition of anonymity, describe the difficulties they encounter day for day in their work in Syria. Again and again, they find themselves reaching their limits, being harassed and prevented from doing their work, and having to take alternative routes to help people. The supreme principle of humanitarian aid - protecting civilians while remaining politically neutral - is no longer fully recognized by the warring parties, they said.

Official approval

For this reason, many relief organizations now operate from neighboring countries to help Syrian civilians in need. From Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey, they drive across the border to Syria - often without permission from the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

All humanitarian aid helpers must have their operations approved by officials in Damascus, even those operations are in regions no longer controlled by the government. And those helpers operating without approval risk having their license for providing humanitarian aid revoked.

In an open letter, an international group of prominent lawyers points to the legal limits to the obstacles and harassment of the Assad government in its dealing with the United Nations and participating humanitarian aid organizations. The letter was initiated by the international non-governmental organization 'Crisis Action' whose mission is to protect civilians in armed conflicts.

No legal recourse

The letter is largely based on a study conducted by the Frankfurt-based international law expert Michael Bothe. In his study, Bothe came to the conclusion that the Assad government has no legal recourse for its action. And especially for its claim of having the right to authorize the work of aid organizations on Syrian soil, Damascus cannot invoke international law. The party with de facto control of a questionable area has that right.

Because the Assad government has lost control over parts of Syria, Bothe argues it cannot claim the right to authorize aid for the whole of the country. 'If aid deliveries doesn't go through a part controlled by a party in the conflict, then this party has nothing to do with that and its consent is also not legally required,' he told DW.

People in need also have the right to receive aid, and no party in the conflict can arbitrarily deny them aid or access to an organization providing it. 'But a government is being arbitrary when it has lost control over an area yet claims the right to authorize aid in that area,' Bothe said. 'It doesn't have that right.'

With their open letter, the study's authors aim to articulate their concerns about the escalating humanitarian catastrophe in Syria; they also view it as a legal appeal. 'The letter calls on the director of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Aid, Valerie Amos, to take a bolder legal position - namely to say that areas not controlled by the government should be able to receive aid from neighboring countries without approval from Damascus,' said Bothe.

Increasing political pressure

No one, however, expects a legally correct argument to persuade Assad to act otherwise but it does create additional political pressure, according to Bothe. The study also contributes to the UN Security Council political-legal evaluation process Syria has been subject to for some time.

'The legal argument naturally plays a role for the Security Council,' said Bothe. 'But I don't want to say it's the only factor.' It is a component, he added, to increase political pressure on Assad and the other Syrian parties involved in the conflict. The added pressure, he argues, could be even greater if more of those responsible in the warring parties understood that it is a war crime to use hunger as a weapon against civilians. This could have significant personal consequences for them.

'If a Syrian leader were to enter Germany, the Federal Attorney General would be obligated to prosecute this person,' Bothe said.

Europe – Dream and Reality

After overcoming the economic crisis, several questions remain regarding the current and future state of Europe. Where is Europe headed, how sustainable is the European dream in a global world? What advantages does the European understanding of the welfare state have - and can it serve as a model for other regions?

These and other questions will be the focus of a symposium hosted by the Alfred Herrhausen Society on May 9. Under the title 'Europe - Dream and Reality,' the event brings together speakers from around the world to share and exchange their ideas on Europe.

Speakers include among others the philosopher Ágnes Heller; the writers Sudhir Kakar, Mely Kiyak and Liao Yiwu; the researcher Zhou Hong; as well as political insiders such as Joschka Fischer, Pascal Lamy, Wu Jianmn, Janusz Reiter and Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

The non-profit Alfred Herrhausen Society is the international forum of the Deutsche Bank. It focuses on new forms of governance as a response to the challenges of the today. DW is cooperating with the society to bring the symposium to a wider audience. The event on May 9 will be streamed over the website dw.de/english, starting at 9:00 CET.

Siemens explains company’s complete overhaul

Following a decisive advisory board meeting, Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser (pictured) is explaining his new long-term strategy to the public and shareholders in particular.

Kaeser took the reins of Siemens last summer, and has since focused on his priority of closing a yawning profitability gap with rivals such as General Electric in the US.

A major streamlining of the Munich-based company is in the works. The present setup of the firm's four big divisions - industry, energy, health care and infrastructure – will belong to the past. Siemens' hearing aid equipment business will be spun off and listed on the stock exchange.

Net profit up

The company also confirmed its interest in the purchasing Rolls-Royce's energy business.

More emphasis will be put on industrial software and digital production processes. It remains unclear for the time being how many more jobs will be cut in the wake of the restructuring process.

Also on Tuesday, Siemens announced it upped its earnings by 12 percent to 1.15 billion euros ($1.6 billion) in its second quarter, running from January to March. Revenues dipped, though, by two percent compared with the same period a year earlier.