VC Fred Wilson: Apple won't rule tech in 2020

Fred Wilson of Union Square VenturesJoan E. Solsman/CNET

NEW YORK -- Venture capitalist Fred Wilson doesn't expect Apple to be in the upper echelon of tech companies in 2020, saying the top three will be Google, Facebook, "and one that we've never heard of."

Apple is "just too rooted in the hardware, they don't have anything in the cloud," he said Tuesday, speaking at the TechCrunch Disrupt event here. "They don't think about data." Apple shares were recently up less than a percentage point, or $2.08, to $594.66.

Wilson, co-founder and partner at venture capital firm Union Square Ventures, is known for investing early in companies that have grown into major forces in technology and the Web, such as Twitter, Foursquare, and Kickstarter.

However, he didn't see Twitter in one of the very top spots in the coming years. "Twitter maybe will be maybe four, five, six, seven -- but I'm not sure they'll be one or two," he said.

The final unknown company rounding out the top three? Wilson says he doesn't know for sure which one it is, but he hopes he's already found it among his portfolio.

While a lack of data and cloud business is Apple's Achilles heel, neither do the majority of consumers think about data much either, he said, discussing privacy worries. "We ought to know what people are doing with our data and we ought to have some ability to control that," he said. "I think that people should be able to opt out of services that essentially mine their personal data and do things with it, but the majority of us probably will not do that."

Burden of power: Why we are in the dark

ISLAMABAD: 

As the mercury rises, the protracted spells of what is arguably the worst load-shedding show no sign of mercy. Ironically, the government says there is no short-term solution to the chronic problem.

Frustrated citizens are left with no choice but to endure the unrelenting load-shedding schedules that range between 10 and 22 hours.

Although the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government has taken action against power bill defaulters – with the recent sweep across the power corridors in the capital earning it a pat on the back – the longstanding predicaments of transmission, distribution losses and power theft persist.

Despite the N-League’s tall promises and attempts at resolving the issue of debt, the true picture of the existing situation is overwhelmingly dark; consumers are without power, crushed by heavy bills and fast losing confidence in the current government’s ability to handle the crisis. This report examines the current state of the power sector, and the causes of prolonged outages throughout the country.

Circular debt and supply

At every level, outstanding dues are owed to stakeholders in the power sector. Unpaid amounts add up to a staggering Rs503 billion, causing a circular debt of Rs197 billion. While the private sector owes Rs288.06 billion to electricity companies, these companies owe billions to suppliers, who, in turn, owe Pakistan State Oil Rs175 billion on account of fuel.

Due to circular debt, power plants have again dropped production as they are uncertain about payments, with supply standing at 10,167MW against a generation capacity of 16,400MW. With demand standing at 14,900MW, the shortfall translates into outages.

In the coming months, the peak demand is expected to cross 17,000MW. It is feared that the masses will face an extreme power crisis if supply is not enhanced, with Water and Power Minister Khawaja Asif already asking people to brace themselves for more power cuts.

Power theft, losses and recovery

The recovery of bills in 2009 stood at 92 per cent, which dropped to 82 per cent during the tenure of the Pakistan Peoples’ Party-led regime. The situation is not any different today, as recovery stands at 82 per cent. The government says that average loss is 22 per cent. But, according to officials, these losses have increased to 29 per cent – a major big setback for distribution companies which are facing a financial crunch, as one per cent loss equals Rs4.4 billion.

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has recently reduced permissible loss to 12.8 per cent from 16.5 per cent which may lead to a cash flow crisis for Discos swelling to Rs40 billion a year from Rs28 billion. Consumers would now be paying for 12.8 per cent losses in the power tariff instead of 16.5 per cent.

Fuel supply

Restricting gas supply to the power sector is a big issue which has not only made power expensive but also forced the government to keep generation to a minimum level to provide fewer subsidies.

According to government officials, in 2014 power plants received only 47 per cent of the earmarked quantity, leading to increase in power tariff and widespread outages. The head of the IPP Advisory Council, Abdullah Yousuf, said that several power plants were shut down due to non-availability of gas.

An official assessment reveals that the gap between gas demand and supply is widening and production is expected to drop to about half of the existing levels by 2020 if new reserves are not tapped or output not increased from existing fields.

Due to non-payment of dues by the power sector, PSO has been providing 18,000 to 20,000 tonnes of furnace oil to power plants against the requirement of 25,000 tonnes, leading to a drop in power generation.

PSO has recently asked the government to release Rs150 billion to arrange fuel for power plants during May, June and July. If this large amount is not released, PSO may default payment to international banks and fuel suppliers.

Poor governance

Officials say the present government is continuing to follow the previous regime’s tendency to run the system on an ad-hoc basis. Entities are still being run by acting heads who are unable to make decisions, with power entities being run by the water and power ministry, sources say.

N-League’s way forward

At present, the government is working on a plan to disconnect defaulters and areas where line losses were above 90 per cent in a bid to provide enhanced supply to those consumers who are paying bills.

Under plan-B, the government wants the industrial sector across the country to have staggered load-shedding on a ‘one-day a week’ basis and also hopes to implement the closure of commercial centres/markets by 8:00pm.

The ministry proposes that marriage halls be allowed to operate for three hours only. Under the plan, the government will also ban the use of air conditioners before 11:00am in public sector offices

James Cameron sued for $1 billion over Titanic 3D

The legendary Oscar winning film Titanic has been re-released in 3-D to mark the 100th anniversary of the marine tragedy that occured in 1912. Here's a look at its UK ...

Kate Winslet looks stunning as she arrives at the Titanic 3D UK film premiere in London on March 27. (AP Photo)

Director James Cameron and actors Kate Winslet and Billy Zane pose at the premiere. (AP Photo)

James Cameron onstage to address the media. (AP Photo)

James Cameron poses for photographers during a press conference. (AP Photo)

Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio in a still from Titanic.

The re-release of Titanic comes after 15 years. (AP Photo)

US actor Billy Zane and Jasmina Hdagha smile at each other. (AP Photo)

James Cameron, Kate Winslet and Billy Zane arrive at the premiere. (AP Photo)

A woman, who claims that director James Cameron and studio executives at 20th Century Fox/Paramount Pictures hijacked her idea to make the April 2012 release Titanic 3D, has reportedly sued them for $1 billion.

Faan Qin's lawsuit contends that Cameron and his partners copied her idea R.M.S. Titanic - The Experience, reports tmz.com.

Read Hollywood and its copycats: Gravity in plagiarism row

Faan said the moviemakers hijacked her idea for a 3D ride that recreates the experience of the cruise that crashed into an iceberg and sank on its maiden voyage in 1912.

Faan claims Cameron's 3D movie has made more than $343 million, but she wants three times that to teach the Hollywood titan a lesson, reports the website.

Cameron's movie on the real life incident released in 1997. Starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, it was a major success. - See more at: http://www.hindustantimes.com/entertainment/hollywood/james-cameron-sued-for-1-billion-over-titanic-3d/article1-1215640.aspx#sthash.ZcJc4lLf.dpuf

Auto industry mulls trade with India

Ahmed, citing high imports of used cars, said the auto industry is less protected than its competitors. PHOTO: FILE

KARACHI: 

Though the automobile industry has been a protected sector in Pakistan, it debates the abolition of the negative list and the tiny sensitive list in trade with India.

In an interview with The Express Tribune, House of Habib Vice Chairman Automotive Sohail P Ahmed explained why the auto industry is not against trade with India and how it wants the government to ease restrictions steadily.

Ahmed said that it is possible for the automobile industry to grow at home while gradually moving ahead in trade with India step by step. “Auto industry requests the government to chalk out a long-term plan that can increase manufacturing of automobiles and their parts in the country,” he added.

According to a recent report by the Pakistan Business Council (PBC) – a business policy advocacy forum – Pakistan’s automotive industry is protected under the negative and sensitive lists with many items overlapping in the two lists. Moreover, the automobile sector would most likely enjoy protection even after the abolition of the negative list (a list of 1209 items in which Pakistan does not allow trade with India).

There is a list of 122 items (HS codes) related to the auto industry. The same PBC study identifies 25 such items that holds a potential of $1 billion imports (Pakistan already imports such items from different countries) and out of these, 23 are protected by Pakistan under the negative and sensitive lists fearing tough competition with India. The report explains that India is a cheaper alternative for such parts, if not complete units, instead of the country’s current source of import such as Thailand and Japan.

The government of Pakistan is looking to give Non Discriminatory Market Access (NDMA) that will technically abolish the negative list. In return, it desires India to remove all non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that it feels are hampering Pakistani exports. However, since the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) allows its signatories to maintain the sensitive list, both India (614 items – reduced by 30% in 2011) and Pakistan (936 items – reduced by 19% in 2011) will continue to maintain their sensitive lists.

Later in September 2012, both countries promised to give further concessions: India agreed to cut its sensitive list to just 100 items and Pakistan to give it NDMA status and open the Wagah-Attari border for all items.

Unlike Pakistan, India does not maintain any negative list for Pakistan. But since it has strong and complex tariff and para-tariff protections for its local industry, a large number of Pakistani exporters find it difficult to export to India.

Ahmed’s unease seems more with-shortening of the sensitive list than granting NDMA status to India. “Pakistan can bring down the sensitive list to 350-400 items from the current 936 items but not to 100 items as it will badly hurt its auto industry,” he said.

Replying to a question on the protection of the local auto industry, he said that like most countries, the auto industry may be protected more in Pakistan compared to other industries but it is surely less protected (citing high imports of used cars in Pakistan) than its competitors.

“But one thing is clear, if you want to promote manufacturing in the country then you must protect your local industry.” said Ahmed. Citing examples of India, Malaysia and Thailand, he said automobile producing countries protect their auto industries because this industry creates larger number of jobs especially in auto part manufacturing.

While agreeing with auto analysts, Ahmed said that compared to automakers, auto parts makers are more likely to get a hit if Pakistan starts importing auto part from India.

Since volumes of Pakistan’s auto parts makers are extremely low compared to their Indian counterparts, their cost of production is significantly higher which is why many of them may shutdown in case of an open trade with India, he maintained.

With all the reservations, Ahmed is convinced that joint ventures and technology transfers from Indian automakers is the best business model that can work for both Indian and Pakistani automakers. “I am in all favour of joint ventures and technology transfer with Indian auto companies. If that happens, it will converge the interests of Indian and Pakistani auto industries bringing down cost of production and also create more job opportunities,” he said.

Alastair Cook wants England to show their nicer side under Peter Moores

Alastair Cook believes England can learn from their rugby counterparts in changing public perception. Photograph: Andrew Cowie/AFP/Getty Images

Alastair Cook has accepted that England became too "insular" during the latter stages of Andy Flower's reign as head coach and has vowed to change the culture within the team after a miserable tour to Australia.

Criticism that England's players do not have a positive rapport with the public surfaced during the 5-0 Ashes whitewash, something that Cook, the captain, and the new coach, Peter Moores, are looking to rectify during the Lancastrian's second spell in charge.

Moores begins his tenure in Aberdeen on Friday, where England play a one-day international against Scotland before the series with Sri Lanka. There are a number of injury concerns going into the summer, notably to Matt Prior and Ben Stokes, while Steven Finn was not selected for the Scotland match despite performing well for Middlesex in the County Championship this season.

Cook, speaking at the launch of England's sponsorship deal with Waitrose, accepted that building a positive relationship with the public is something Australia achieved successfully under Darren Lehmann, who turned their fortunes round following their Ashes defeat in England last summer.

"They did it very well," said Cook of Australia's return to prominence. "You do look at other sides and how they operate. It always helps when you win games of cricket but maybe we became very insular as a side. It worked well for us but when things aren't going well you have nothing left to fall back on.

"The guys in the dressing room are good people, they are nice guys and the public don't see that enough. We should always remember how lucky we are to play for England and we should do it representing the country with pride. Maybe people don't see that enough.

"It will take some effort to show that and, if we copy Australia a little bit in the way they did that, they should be given some credit as well."

Cook believes England can learn from the progression of the national rugby union side, who have improved performances since Stuart Lancaster was appointed permanent head coach in March 2012 and have attempted to connect with the public in the run-up to next year's World Cup.

Shane Warne questioned if England were being deliberately "arrogant and dismissive" last August, with particular criticism of Prior, whom he accused of being "smug". Cook, though, says there can be a lot to learn from Lancaster and the union operation.

"Lessons should be learned from the way they have gone about it," said Cook. "Huge credit to Stuart and the guys for the way they have managed to change that. I imagine it has taken a hell of a lot of work and effort. They came second in the Six Nations three years in a row but everyone can see the development of the side. I went to watch them play against Ireland and it was a brilliant day.

"I shouldn't talk too much about rugby but Stuart has obviously made some big calls about big players at certain stages of their career. He has picked people who are in form and who are playing well. Chris Ashton, he is an outstanding winger, he had a drop of form and they replaced him with a guy in form. Now 'Ash the Splash' has come back and done very well for Saracens and is back in the frame. That drives a higher standard."

Cook has had a number of discussions with Moores about the team's direction and believes his second spell will be more fruitful than the first. He said: "It was about getting back to know Peter again, hammering out what he thought my values were and me then asking him questions and getting some middle ground, which wasn't too hard."

Kentucky Derby won in stunning fashion by favourite California Chrome

Early stages in the 140th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, with eventual winner California Chrome in third place. Photograph: Jamie Rhodes/USA Today Sports

California Chrome, a warm favourite, won the 140th Kentucky Derby in brilliant fashion at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

Perfectly ridden by Victor Espinoza, California Chrome pinned back his ears and sprinted clear of his rivals at the top of the stretch to easily win the $2.2m race in Louisville.

Commanding Curve, one of the longshots in the 19-horse field, finished strongly to take second while Danza battled in for third place.

Unbeaten in four starts this season, the modestly-bred California Chrome started as the 5-2 favourite after romping to victories in previous races, including last month's Santa Anita Derby that is one of the key lead-up events to the Run for the Roses.

California Chrome's 77-year-old trainer, Art Sherman, became the oldest person to train the winner of the Kentucky Derby.

The attendance at Churchill Downs was announced as 164,906.

The winning owners, Steve Coburn of Nevada and Perry Martin of California, paid only $10,500 for California Chrome – $8,000 to purchase the mare Love the Chase and $2,500 to breed her to the stallion Lucky Pulpit.

Only three horses bred in California had previously won the Kentucky Derby – Morvich (1922), Swaps (1955) and Decidedly (1962)

Kieren Fallon wins 2,000 Guineas on shock victor Night Of Thunder

Kieren Fallon steers the erratic Night Of Thunder to success in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket with Australia, right, in third. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA

Kieren Fallon won a dramatic 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on 40-1 outsider Night Of Thunder despite the winner swerving across the track in the closing stages.

It was a fifth colts' Classic success for the jockey and his first in the race for eight years. His mount, who was winning for Richard Hannon in the first year since the trainer took over at his Wiltshire stable from his father, reversed Greenham Stakes form with the favourite Kingman.

Kingman had looked likely to collect the prize when taking up the running in the closing stages but was caught close home by the winner, who he had well behind him in second at Newbury last time. But there was a huge scare for supporters of the eventual winner who veered across the track and nearly into the path of third-placed Australia.

Fallon said: "I thought he'd given it away, but he's a good horse and hopefully he can continue."

An emotional Hannon said: "I didn't have time to enjoy it - I was watching [my other two horses in the race]. But we've always though a lot of Night Of Thunder and he's done it well. We were a bit disappointed with him in the Greenham but today he showed how good he was.

"He gets a mile, no problem, and he settled better today. He pulled a little bit in the Greenham and he's turned the form around with Kingman."

Night Of Thunder now has the option of travelling to The Curragh to contest the Irish 2,000 Guineas on May 24, for which he would need to be supplemented.

Hannon said: "We'll have to talk to Bruce Raymond [racing manager for owner Saeed Manana] but I'd imagine it will be either the Irish Guineas or the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot. Shifting Power ran great to finish fourth and could be a French Derby horse."

The race was an unsatisfactory one as the field split into two groups soon after the start, with the Hannon-trained Toormore moving to the stands' rail under Richard Hughes and Spanish raider Noozhoh Canarias leading the far-side runners, which included the eventual first and second.

Kingman came with a strong run on the outside of the far group and looked like he would justify the high opinion of him, while on the near side Toormore was headed a furlong out, with Australia going on from Hannon's other runner, Shifting Power.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Australia, was very pleased with the run of the third home who could hardly have run a better race with the Derby in mind. He said: "[Australia] ran a great race and you have to be delighted with him. We'll talk to [the owners] and they will decide but the Derby trip was never going to be a problem."