Boxing Day internet sales expected to top £540m

Analysts believe online sales make up just a fraction of £2.6bn expected to be spent on Boxing Day as shoppers research online but buy on the high street

Sales already on at Oxford Street. A large proportion of the high street has been offering discounts for several weeks. Photograph: Paul Brown/REX/Rex Features

Millions of shoppers are expected to hit the high street on Boxing Day for the biggest shopping day of the year – despite many having already snapped up bargains online on Christmas Day.

Internet sales were expected to top £350m on Christmas Day, 15% more than last year as shoppers unwrapped tablet computers and smartphones and put them straight into action. This will increase on Boxing Day, with online sales predicted to be worth £540m.

"The Boxing Day sales have traditionally been the day when we splash our Christmas cash, however the relentless growth in online shopping, and ever-earlier sales, means that more and more of us are taking to the web on Christmas Day to secure the best bargains," said a spokesperson from Barclaycard, whose research found that almost a third of its customers planned to shop online and only 27% said they would brave the crowds on the high street (27%).

But rather than a straight division between those shopping online and those going into stores, analysts said consumers were combining the two by researching their purchases on the internet but doing the actual spending in the stores.

"Boxing Day remains the stalwart of sales days in the shopping calendar and this year the sales will start earlier than ever, with retailers pulling the trigger and launching online campaigns on Christmas Day, so shoppers can browse the sales over their turkey and pick up a bargain. Most, however, will keep their sales goods to the shop floor," said David McCorquodale, head of retail at KPMG.

John Lewis will begin its online sale at 5pm on Christmas Day while Marks & Spencer and Currys & PC World launched their sales on Christmas Eve. John Lewis said that Christmas Day and Boxing Day last year were its busiest online shopping days of 2012, and it expects to repeat that this year. Shoppers picking up goods they have already ordered online will boost the number of high street visitors on Boxing Day.

Online transactions make up just a fraction of the £2.6bn total that will be splashed out on Boxing Day, according to Verdict Research, as many shoppers research their purchases online but do the spending on the high street.

Birmingham's Bullring shopping centre is expecting over 200,000 visitors, which will compete with the first weekend in December when the last pre-Christmas payday combined with US-style Black Friday discounts to draw in 230,000 visitors. At least 800,000 shoppers are expected to hit London's West End to snap up bargains from the likes of Selfridges and Topshop.

Smartphones are likely to play a growing role in helping shoppers quickly bag bargains they have had their eye on, sending mobile sales soaring on big discount days such as Boxing Day and Black Friday.

Andrew McClelland, chief operating officer of IMRG, said: "Mobile device usage really is changing the way we shop." He said smartphones accounted for 20% of online sales via mobile devices as shoppers bought items on the move, but tablet computers, which tend to be cheaper than laptop or desktop computers, were allowing more and more people to shop easily online from the comfort of the sofa.

Furniture and homewares, clothing and electrical goods are all expected to sell well post-Christmas, potentially offering a boost to stores that have struggled to sell big-ticket items during the economic downturn.

Shoppers in the south-east of England, where the housing market has been buoyant, are likely to splash out on large homewares but shoppers in the north of England, where prices have not moved on, may be less exuberant, according to McCorquodale.

"I don't expect consumers to throw caution completely to the wind. The average shopper has a limited budget and needs to stick to it: confidence doesn't feed the family, cash does, and until wages rise, this cost focused mentality will be here to stay," he said.

This year's Boxing Day sales may have less impact as a large proportion of the high street has been offering discounts for several weeks. Clothing stores and shoe shops have been keenest to offer bargains but department stores Debenhams and House of Fraser have been offering deals across the store.

Nearly three quarters of 100 major retailers monitored by PwC, the accountancy firm, were on sale last week with discounts averaging 46%. Marks & Spencer was offering discounts of up to 30% on knitwear and Per Una clothing last week and all clothing at the weekend, while stores from New Look to House of Fraser offered discounts of up to 50%.

However, Maureen Hinton at analysts Verdict Research said: "Shoppers will have been waiting until after Christmas because they know they can get even bigger discounts on items they want for themselves."

Those retailers that have really saved their discounts until after Christmas will see the most visitors. Tim Walley, general manager of the Bullring, says he expects about 2,000 bargain hunters to queue outsidefashion and homewares chain Next in the early hours of Boxing Day, with childrenswear its big draw.

Asda said it expected a busier than ever Boxing Day with 2 million customers coming through its doors and over a million hits online. It is hoping that deals on electrical goods will be a bigger draw than its Black Friday sales day earlier this month, when some shoppers were injured in the rush to bag cheap TVs and other electrical goods.

Meanwhile, Harrods will be tempting shoppers to its famous annual sale with hot drinks, food and a butler service for those queuing outside the Knightsbridge department store.

Harrods spokesperson Katharine Witty said: "We always raise the bar at every sale opening and this year we decided to do what we do best inside the store – only outside the store. Customers will therefore be treated to fantastic service, canapés and entertainment while they queue. We even have specially made blankets to keep out the chill."

Boxing Day bargains

Offers at Harrods

Alexander McQueen Heroine bag reduced from £2,195 to £1,310

J Brand skinny jeans reduced from £275 to £129

Emilio Pucci silk scarf reduced from £240 to £140

Currys and PC World

Zanussi ZWNB6140L washing machine down from £379.99 to £249.99

Rangemaster Kitchener cooker now £999 down from £1399

Samsung UE60F6300 60" Smart LED TV with Freeview HD for £999, saving £500

Asda

42" Panasonic TV – £279, was £329

VAX White label cyclonic cylinder vacuum cleaner – £40, was £54.96

Samsung Tablet 3, 7" – £139, was £159

Nicky Clarke frizz control dryer – £17, was £24.48

Labels to look for: fashion's best buys

Chosen by Imogen Fox

Womenswear

Saint Laurent shoes reduced from £765 to £535 at matchesfashion.com, on sale now

Buying something classic from a label at the top of the fashion hierarchy makes sense if you can afford it. Saint Laurent is both hip and classic, and a black and gold eveningwear sandal will not date for a decade. It's equivalent to 10 pairs from the high street.

Stella McCartney coat reduced from £1,940 to £970 at Stella McCartney.com, sale starts 27 December

A coat makes a brilliant sale buy as there is still plenty of cold weather to come. Plus it's the one item that people see you in first. For fashion points and female friendly fit, the Stella McCartney label is unequalled.

Dress from Whistles reduced from £165 now £80 at Whistles, sale now on

The upper end high street brand does the best dresses. This is less than half price, works for evening or day, and has an anonymous (but could potentially be designer) look about it.

Menswear

Shoes from Grenson reduced from £265 to £132.50 at mrporter.com, sale starts 30 December

Good shoes are what a man gets judged on first. If you are well shod you can pretty much wear anything. Black brogues are a useful classic but the extra chunky sole on these gives them a fashion update.

Suit at Reiss reduced from £395 to £275, sale now on

Stuff you need is less painful to buy in the sales. No one enjoys splashing out on something they need for their 9 to 5. If you need a new work suit Reiss in the sales is the place. Its suits have a fashion sensitive cut. Choose a simple pared back colour that isn't usually associated with the sale rail.

Britain 'will be Europe's top economy by 2030'

Centre for Economic and Business Research predicts that Germany will fall behind UK – and China will overtake US by 2028

Germany – for decades Europe’s powerhouse economy – will have a smaller economy than the UK by about 2030. Photograph: Fabian Bimmer/Reuters

A rising population, a low-tax regime and insulation from the worst of the eurozone's problems leave Britain on course to overtake Germany as Europe's biggest economy within the next two decades, according to a study released on Thursday.

The annual world economic league tables from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that Germany – for decades Europe's powerhouse economy – will have a smaller economy than the UK by about 2030.

Although strong growth by emerging economies such as India, Brazil and Russia mean that the UK will slip down the global rankings over the next two decades, the CEBR said it would be the second most successful western economy after the US.

"Positive demographics with continuing immigration [and] rather less exposure to the problems of the eurozone than other European economies combine with relatively low taxes by European standards to encourage faster growth than in most western economies," the report said. "Issues for the UK include the need to further reorient its exports to the faster growing markets, an unresolved relationship with the rest of the EU and the possibility of breakup – highlighted by the referendum on Scottish independence in September 2014."

The CEBR said it used forecasts for growth, inflation and currency values to compile league tables of the size of economies measured in US dollars in 2013, 2018, 2023 and 2028. It said the predictions needed to be treated with caution, especially in light of the unpredictable fluctuations in currencies.

But the CEBR said its model showed China overtaking the US to become the world's biggest economy by 2028, by which time both will be five times as big as India, in third place.

For some years, economists have been trying to assess when China will overtake the US. The CEBR said it would take longer than some analysts have suggested due to the continuing performance of the US as the west's strongest economy and the slowing down of the Chinese economy.

India is expected to overtake Japan as the world's third biggest economy within 15 years, with Brazil fifth and Germany only just ahead of the UK in sixth by 2028. The CEBR said "Abenomics" – the anti-deflation strategy named after Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe – would lead to a weak yen for the foreseeable future which would affect the dollar value of its national output.

The CEBR said: "Theoretically Germany should continue to perform well in future years. However, on the assumption that the euro does not break up, a combination of weak European economic growth, a depreciating currency, the requirement to bail out ailing economies in the rest of the eurozone and increasingly adverse population trends mean that in this forecast Germany eventually slips down the league table.

"Indeed, Germany is forecast to lose its position as the largest western European economy to the UK around 2030 because of the UK's faster population growth and lesser dependence on the other European economies."

The study found that a break-up of the euro would improve the outlook for Germany, since it would have a "harder" currency and therefore higher GDP in dollar terms. "A deutschemark-based Germany certainly would not be overtaken by the UK for many years, if ever."

Other eurozone countries will suffer even sharper falls down the league table, the CEBR said. France, currently fifth, will drop to 13th by 2028, while Italy, eighth, will be the world's 15th biggest economy in 15 years' time.

The UK, currently sixth in the world league table, will move up a place by 2018, overtaking France. But by 2023 it will have dropped to seventh, having been displaced by India and Brazil.

UK house prices expected to rise 8% in 2014

Banks and estate agents forecast more growth in all parts of country after surprise gains in 2013

Almost £20,000 will be added to the average house price next year, according to the most optimistic forecasts. Photograph: Anthony Devlin/PA

UK house prices are set to rise by up to 8% in 2014, building on the surprise gains made in 2013, according to the most bullish forecasts by economists and property professionals.

A round-up of seven surveys by banks, surveyors and estate agents shows widespread forecasts of further growth, with gains in all parts of the country, not just London and the south-east. Government initiatives to boost mortgage lending have restored confidence to the property market and driven demand, and this is set to continue into next year despite the removal of some stimulus and changes in the regulation of the mortgage market which will mean tougher affordability tests on loans, the forecasts said.

The most optimistic forecasters are predicting an 8% rise in prices next year, which would add almost £20,000, or £1,600 a month, to the most recent Office for National Statistics average house price of £247,000. Those predicting growth at this level include the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) and the UK's largest lender, Halifax.

Even the normally downbeat Capital Economics said it expected house prices to rise by 5% next year, and admitted that could be an underestimate. Matthew Pointon, a property economist at the firm, said: "If sellers do not return to the market during the key spring period, prices could rise more quickly."

An imbalance between supply and demand is behind Rics's expectation of 8% growth, and has been one of the key drivers of prices in 2013 as buyers' appetites grew at a faster rate than the number of homes available, according to estate agents and surveyors. It is also one of the key reasons why critics have condemned the second part of the government's Help to Buy scheme, which launched in October and offers lenders a taxpayer-backed guarantee on mortgages of up to 95%. While the mortgage guarantee scheme promotes lending, it does nothing to encourage building, and some estimates have suggested that the UK needs at least 100,000 extra homes a year to keep up with demand.

Top mortgages

 

Find the best deals on the market

Today's best rates

• 1.49% 
  HSBC
• 1.49% 
  HSBC
• 1.69% 
  HSBC

Compare

• More best buys
• Payment calculator
• Speak to an adviser
• One minute check
• What can I borrow?
• Life insurance

Provided by London & Country for the Guardian

The further rollout of Help to Buy in early 2014, which will see major lenders such as Santander and Barclays offer 95% loans, is set to bring new borrowers into the market as it will open up more options for those with just 5% to put down as a deposit. That will come as changes are made to the government's Funding for Lending scheme (FLS), which has allowed banks and building societies to offer record-low mortgage rates in 2013. From January, lenders will no longer be able to use the scheme to fund household credit and will only be able to draw on it for business loans. However, although it has been a key factor in allowing consumers to access cheap mortgages, the withdrawal of FLS from residential lending is unlikely to have a big impact on the market, commentators said.

"Funding for Lending has done a lot of its job in reducing the overall cost of funding for everybody," said Fionnuala Earley, a former chief economist at Nationwide and now residential research director at the estate agents Hamptons International. Earley said its withdrawal was unlikely to lead to an increase in mortgage rates. "That and the improvements in the economy have boosted confidence and made lenders less risk averse."

Earley said the brakes on the housing market were likely to be from tougher affordability checks coming into force in the spring, following the mortgage market review by the City regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority. These will require banks and building societies to do new stress tests on borrowers to ensure they can still afford their loans if interest rates go up. The Council of Mortgage Lenders has also said it expects this to limit lending in the coming years.

Last week, its chief economist, Bob Pannell, said the rules would "hardwire in a more risk-averse lending environment for the future" and meant lending, which is set to hit £170bn in 2013, but reached £363bn in 2007, was unlikely to go "very far above £200bn a year".

However, Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at the estate agents Knight Frank, which is predicting a 7% increase in UK prices in 2014, said banks and building societies were already being cautious with their lending criteria, "so the affordability checks are unlikely to have a significant impact".

The Bank of England will be carefully monitoring the housing market in 2014, and Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS, said it could act to slow the market – but that he was not sure a single intervention would work on its own. "A combination of actions may have some braking impact on the housing market – including at least a dilution of the Help to Buy scheme (such as lowering the ceiling for purchases under the scheme from £600,000 to £300,000) and very close monitoring of banks' underwriting standards on mortgages," he said. "There could also be a further tightening of underwriting standards. Banks could also be asked to increase capital requirements against mortgage lending."

Archer, who expects price inflation to hit 8% in 2014, added: "Of course, the Bank of England could also raise interest rates to rein in the housing market, but it is clearly reluctant to do this soon given the impact this would have on the economy."

Earley said she was happy to see the housing market come under close scrutiny, and that the Bank's new role in monitoring lending was a good thing for homebuyers. "This should lead to a much more sustainable market and that's more positive than a situation where people have a kneejerk 'I've got to buy now' attitude."

Closing the gap

The story of 2013 is a tale of two property markets: London and the rest of the UK. Headlines claiming "London house prices jump by £50,000 in a month" were only referring to a leap in asking prices and might have reflected sellers' optimism more than reality, but all of the major price indices showed the capital powering ahead.

The Land Registry's most recent data, which strips out the newbuild properties that attract a lot of foreign investment money, showed that in October prices across London were up by 8% year-on-year, while nine boroughs had seen double-digit growth. In Lambeth, prices were 13% higher than in October 2012, closely followed by 12% growth in Wandsworth and Hammersmith & Fulham.

Looking ahead, commentators are expecting London's growth to continue, but some are saying that the gap will fall. Martin Ellis from the Halifax said he expected fewer regional variations next year: "There are signs that the improvement is becoming more broadly based with much of the country now recording price rises. We expect the regional pattern to be more even in 2014, with all regions experiencing price gains." He added that the high ratio of prices to earnings in London would put constraints on rises there.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors is forecasting 11% increases in London, but said it expected the east of England and east Midlands to record rises of 10%. Knight Frank is forecasting a rise of 8.4% in London, and 7.6% in the wider south-east and in the south-west. Looking further forward, Savills has said it expects the wider south-east to outperform London over the next five years, with Bournemouth, Brighton and Windsor among the towns expected to see average prices soar by 32% while London records gains of 24.4%, just behind a national average of 25%.

The inconspicuous life of a film-festival curator

(Left) Santanu Ganguly and (right) Muhammed Umar Saeed are just two of the many curators who work tirelessly behind the scenes at festivals. PHOTOS: PUBLICITY

LAHORE: If anyone is organising a film-festival in this part of the globe, Santanu Ganguly is sure to be there. He probably wouldn’t stand out in the crowd, but he is the backbone of the growing trend of film festivals around the globe. The growth of film festivals has become an important circuit for aspiring filmmakers.

“Most people in India would not know what a film festival curator is. In fact my in-laws would ask ‘what is this job you do’, and in most places in India, people don’t know what film festivals are about,” says Ganguly.

Ganguly, who was in town for the third Rafi Peer International Film Festival held in Lahore last weekend, said that the job of film curator has become an important aspect of the ‘festival circuit’. Like any arts curator, he spends his life organising and scouting independent films around the globe for an array of film festivals.

“I am always on my toes from September to March, I am travelling like crazy, and I have found that people are very interested in film festivals everywhere,” he says.

Ganguly specialises in bringing regional films to the forefront; such as Bengali, Malayalam, Tamil, Telegu and others. His year is booked solid, with him travelling around the globe, either organizing film festivals or conducting workshops related to the growing field.

“You can watch a film anywhere, on TV or cinema, but the beauty of the film festival, is that it goes deeper into creating an understanding of how to watch films, and what is good or bad about particular films,” says Ganguly.

As an expert on Asian cinema, he views the importance surrounding film festivals as a force that allows non-commercial films to come to the forefront. He interacts with directors who find it hard to break-in the controls of the mainstream industry.

“In the Bombay film industry, you have four houses controlling the industry. In Hollywood it’s the same thing, there is little space for people outside of the mainstream. I am looking to reveal those that are,” says Ganguly.

Muhammed Umar Saeed, who recently curated the Third Rafi Peer Film Festival, says that it is important to extend the culture of film festivals locally.

“I have studied film from Punjab University. After I graduated, I started to roam around the world attending film festivals. This allowed me to understand what they are all about first hand,” says Muhammed Umar Saeed.

When asked to curate and program the festival in Lahore, Saeed said he had been reluctant initially as he was unsure as to how many films he could curate. He said that being part of the festival circuit meant that he was able to get films from 35 countries.

“The importance of film curators and festivals, even if you go abroad, is that filmmakers from different backgrounds get to interact, and then you get to look and view everything related to films, so it’s important in preserving a culture,” adds Saeed.

Energy starved: Chinese investors meet CM

K-P Chief Minister Pervez Khattak. PHOTO: APP

A group of Chinese investors met Chief Minister Pervez Khattak on Wednesday and offered to invest in hydel power projects in the province.

The foreign delegation pledged investment worth billions, especially in the Malakand region. Khattak appreciated their offer and said the province would provide the best security to their engineers and all possible facilities to ensure the projects are completed promptly and without any hindrance.

The delegation earlier visited various areas in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa that could serve as potential sites for construction of hydel projects. The provincial government termed their plans safe and environment-friendly, and hoped the projects would lead to increased employment for residents.

The investors said they were not worried about their safety and, being neighbours, considered the province their second home. They said they were looking forward to working for the betterment of Pakistanis.

Demi Lovato to marry Valderrama?

File photo of singer Demi Lovato. PHOTO: AFP

LOS ANGELES: Singer Demi Lovato and boyfriend actor Wilmer Valderrama are reportedly planning to enter wedlock.

Valderrama, 33, purchased a stunning ring from America’s house of design Tiffany’s in Pasadena, California and acted “really excited and happy”.

“Yes, Wilmer did buy a ring here. We all talked about it afterwards because he was so darn nice,” showbizspy.com quoted a source from the store as saying.

While the source couldn’t confirm that the item was an engagement ring, the ring itself was said to be “extremely stunning”.

“He chose a really classic, beautiful ring. Demi is going to be a happy girl when she gets it. He didn’t say what it was for but he was really excited and happy – he seemed like any other guy getting ready to pop the question,” she said.

'Ronaldo carrying Madrid but Ribery deserves Ballon d'Or' - Ben Arfa

The Frenchman is in awe of the way in which the Portuguese wins games singlehandedly for Los Blancos, but he feels his compatriots' treble success should be recognised

Hatem Ben Arfa believes that while Cristiano Ronaldo has been "carrying Real Madrid on his own" this year, Franck Ribery would be a more worthy recipient of the Ballon d'Or.

Lionel Messi has also been shortlisted for the prestigious individual award but Ronaldo and Ribery are widely regarded as the clear frontrunners.

Ben Arfa has nothing but respect for Ronaldo's remarkable goalscoring exploits with Madrid this year, with the Portuguese having netted 69 goals in total, but he feels that the key role Ribery played in Bayern Munich's historic treble success last season should not go unrecognised.

"When you see the stats of Ronaldo, he is carrying Real Madrid on his own," the Newcastle winger told L'Equipe.

"But if I had the power, I would give it to Ribery. He won everything with Bayern and contributed to their great season."

Ben Arfa raised eyebrows recently when he claimed that he could one day be crowned the best player in the world and he was keen to put his comments into context.

"They asked me if I was dreaming about the Ballon d'Or," the France international explained. "I said yes, like any player would. But this is not something that obsesses me."

Newcastle are currently flying in the Premier League but Ben Arfa has seen little game time of late. However, even though the World Cup is looming large on the horizon, the 26-year-old insists that he is not considering a move away from St. James' Park during the January transfer window.

"I do not think about Brazil," Ben Arfa declared. "I only think about my club and to be good for my team.

"The team is doing well and it is normal that the manager (Alan Pardew) maintains that confidence in the team in place. Although when you're a competitor, you want to be on the pitch. 

"I give everything always, even if I am asked to play 10, 15 minutes. A departure from Newcastle? The question does not arise today. I do not think about it. I'm at Newcastle and I feel good. We'll se