Graeme Swann, centre, walks off after losing his wicket to Australia's Nathan Lyon. It is unlikely that the off spinner will play for England for too much longer, if at all, after this series. Photograph: Anthony Devlin/PA
It has been four years, three months and 25 days from the moment that Michael Hussey succumbed to Graeme Swann on a late August day at The Oval that clinched England's Ashes, to that at the Waca when Jimmy Anderson fended off yet another lifter from Mitchell Johnson into the hands of George Bailey at short leg, to bring them back to Australia. The change in fortune has been astonishing, not least in the last five of those months.
There has been a ferocity about Australia's approach that has been far from edifying at times, but it has been mighty effective.
England have been outgunned in every aspect of the game. The relative number of centuries, seven to Australia against Ben Stokes' magnificent effort in Perth, can be misleading( as it was in 2009) because four of those came in the second innings with a significant lead already. But the manner in which Johnson in particular obliterated England's lower order, while England failed to manage the same, was crucial, as was the quality of the Australian catching against that of England.
In Perth – especially in Perth – given the state of the series, they made a selection mistake in not including Boyd Rankin rather than the workhorse Tim Bresnan.
England have been let down by a failure to make first-innings runs sufficient to keep them in the game and maintain pressure on Australia. If, in general, the toss makes little difference between winning and losing, it seems to be having a considerable influence on Ashes matches at the moment, with seven of the last eight results, going back to Melbourne three years ago, going to the side winning the toss.
At times all of the top-five batsmen, with the exception of the unfortunate Jonathan Trott, have batted well enough, and certainly confidently against Johnson at least, without going on to make match-defining scores. Stokes', meanwhile, was the first hundred by an England batsman selected to bat at No6 since Eoin Morgan's against Pakistan at Trent Bridge in 2010. The decline of Matt Prior has had a startling effect.
Already it is time to look to the future, and not just to Melbourne, Sydney and the need to avoid a whitewash. It is little more than 18 months until the next Ashes series in England, in which period England have the remaining two games in Australia, two Tests at home to Sri Lanka followed by five against India, then three in the Caribbean in April of 2015 and two at home against New Zealand once more.
In other words, 14 Tests to assemble and give experience to a team that can compete with Australia in an endeavour to win back
the Ashes. This does not, or should not, involve a whole root-and-branch sack-them-all approach. The Australians know as much as anyone that England possesses quality cricketers, whom through their own excellence they have made to play well below their standards individually and therefore collectively.
Alastair Cook is perfectly right in saying that Andy Flower is in the best position to bring about the change. To suggest that he would not have been aware that his team had plateaued is to do him an injustice but he might have expected a deal more from experienced cricketers. Likewise, Cook himself is a respected captain, a job that entails rather more than just running things on the field. But there is certainly a case for bringing about a change in the culture of the side, where micro-management has been taken to excessive degrees, and which has maybe taken the focus from more fundamental aspects of preparation.
It would be no surprise if Flower did not insist now on a reduction in support staff. A greater emphasis on players taking full responsibility for their own games will also be high on an agenda: the reliance on coaches who for their part see it as their role not to spoon-feed but to help batsmen and bowlers think for themselves, is too great.
Flower will need to make a rapid assessment of which players he believes will be around and in a position to form the nucleus of the squad in 2015.
These might include, from the Perth XI Cook, Joe Root, Ian Bell, Stokes, and Stuart Broad, perhaps with the addition of Anderson still, and Bresnan. Michael Carberry probably not. How Kevin Pietersen fits into this is hard to gauge but if his ambition is still there then so should he be.
Against that it is unlikely that Graeme Swann will play for much longer, if at all after this series (the inclusion of Stokes in the squad here was early acknowledgement of succession planning). From the remainder of the squad can be added Jonny Bairstow, Gary Ballance, Steve Finn, and Rankin.
Beyond that, in the medium term, they will be looking at the likes of Sam Robson as a possible alternative to Carberry, Moeen Ali, Ben Foakes, Jos Buttler, James Taylor and young pacemen such as Essex's Tymal Mills (who barely gets a game and must surely move counties), Jamie Overton and David Willey. The only credible spinner is Monty Panesar, but Stokes' presence does make that balancing act easier.
The immediate future of Prior hangs by a thread. Clearly his lack of runs and general confidence is impacting on his keeping, and for the remaining two Tests it would be prudent to bring in Bairstow. This would not by any means equate to the end of his international career as Brad Haddin, five years Prior's senior, has shown. But there is much to rebuild in someone who has been an outstanding competitor for England.
For Melbourne, Broad's injury may force a bowling change anyway, in which case Rankin should come in, and perhaps in any case in place of Anderson, who has just lost that snap that makes him so dangerous. It is too early to judge if he is simply burnt out after bowling more overs this year than any other pace bowler worldwide, or whether it is the start of a decline.
Whether Panesar plays instead of Swann might boil down to how they view the longer term. A personal view is that the changes have to start now, as far as they can.
Meanwhile, Australia look set to challenge the best for a while to come. The careers of both Chris Rogers and Haddin are close to the end, but the planning is sound, so that Phil Hughes is ready to return, Alex Doolan is thought ready to take over Shane Watson's role at No3, with Watson moving to six in place of George Bailey.
Peter Nevill, who England saw in their pre-series warm up in Sydney, will be the next keeper. The pace bowling is chock full of talent, the trick only in keeping them fit. Only the future condition of Michael Clarke's back might give rise to real concern. They will not relinquish the Ashes readily.
