Monday, 9 December 2013

Analysts sceptical of reported HSBC flotation in UK

A branch of HSBC
A branch of HSBC, said to be considering flotation of its £20bn UK arm. Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA
HSBC has played down the prospect of spinning off its UK business in a separate stock market listing in a move that would undo its takeover of Midland Bank 20 years ago.
The UK's biggest bank posted a memo to staff on its intranet after The Financial Times reported that up to 30% of the UK operations could be floated on the stock market as a way to address the requirements set out by Sir John Vickers – who chaired the independent commission on banking – for banks to erect a ringfence between their high street and investment banking arms.
Citing sources familiar with the idea of floating HSBC's UK arm, the FT said the unit could be valued at £20bn. HSBC declined to comment.
But in a note to staff the bank pointed out that it the UK economy was now recovering and that a spin off the British banking operations would deprive the rest of the group of that potential growth.
Antonio Simoes, the head of the UK bank, said: "We understand this could be unsettling for employees and want to confirm that this is speculation and nothing more."
The stock market had shrugged off the report that also raised speculation that the UK's largest bank might consider moving its head office away from London.
The bank told staff that the UK was one of its major markets, along with Hong Kong where it was based before the Midland takeover, and that together they make up 40 to 50% of profits.
HSBC – fined £1.2bn a year ago by the US for laundering money for Mexican drug barons – has also faced repeated speculation it could move its headquarters from London because of Vickers and George Osborne's bank levy, which was raised last week and which could leave HSBC with a bill of £650m a year.
Douglas Flint, the bank's chairman, has said the bank might increase salaries to side-step the EU plan to cap bonuses at one times salary, but said this was not a reason to move the bank's head office. He has previously said the bank will review where to keep its head office in 2015.
Analysts at Credit Suisse questioned whether a sell-off would help tackle the Vickers regulatory requirements which must be implemented by 2015. "Is this going to happen? In the past when we have looked at ring-fencing we have considered whether this would lead to break-up of banks and whether this is ultimately the direction of travel. This is a broader industry discussion and in the end this will depend on the final legislation, but at this stage we are unsure of the merits of such a move."
The speculation about a potential flotation of the UK arm - which combines retail banking and investment banking and employs thousands of people - comes as other banking operations are heading for the stock market. Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland must spin off branch networks – TSB and Williams & Glyn's respectively – to comply with EU rules set out at the time of their bail outs while Santander has said it will consider at the end of 2014 whether the conditions are right for a flotation of its UK arm. OneSavings Bank, which owns the Kent Reliance building society, is also said to be eyeing a potential flotation.
Analysts said that a spin-off might improve the stock market price for the entire HSBC group as the UK operations are not broken out inside the wider group which spans Asia, Africa, Latin America and the US, although the shares were little changed at 655p.
"Such a move would crystallise a higher rating for the whole group, especially in the light of buoyant investor sentiment on the UK economy," said Shailesh Raikundlia, analyst at Espirito Santo.

George Osborne's economic policy: more poverty, worse public services

George Osborne, Tory conference, Manchester 30/9/13
George Osborne has announced fresh cuts in departmental spending and a cap on all welfare payments other than pensions and jobseekers’ benefits. Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images
George Osborne has received little flak for his austerity programme. Opinion pollsters say the public is even more convinced of the need to balance the government's books than it was when the chancellor arrived at the Treasury three and a half years ago.
Voters need to be aware, though, that they are in this for the long haul. Osborne is only half done with spending cuts, which will continue not just for the current parliament but most of the next. The single most arresting statistic in last week's autumn statement was that by 2018-19, the squeeze on Whitehall departments means government will be smaller than at any time since at least 1948, when consistent data was first collected.
A bit of care is needed with this comparison. It doesn't mean public spending as a share of national output will be lower than it was when Attlee was prime minister, because that figure includes welfare payments such as pensions, housing benefit and unemployment pay, which have increased since the 1940s.
But it does include just about everything else: the day-to-day government spending, investment in infrastructure projects and debt interest payments. To a degree this is recognition that Britain is a poorer country than it was before the Great Recession. The level of GDP will not return to its pre-slump peak of early 2008 until the end of 2014 or the start of 2015, while it will take a full decade for real earnings to make up lost ground.
But the shrinking of the state is also a political choice. The chancellor has decided the vast bulk of the reduction in the budget deficit will occur though cuts in spending rather than increases in taxation: an 86%-14% split according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
On current Treasury plans, this means that cuts in spending by Whitehall departments will be deeper in the next parliament than they have been in the current one. Between April 2011 and March 2016, the IFS says that public service cuts will average 2.3% a year; from 2016 to 2019 they are scheduled to be 3.7%.
Put another way, so far the coalition has cut spending on public services by 8%; by 2018-19 this will have become a cut of 20%. There are alternatives if Osborne doubts whether the public's phlegmatic approach to austerity will endure an extension and a deepening of the programme. He could continue to trim spending at the current rate of 2.3% a year but would have to find £12bn a year from tax increases or welfare cuts to do so.
Either that or he has to get lucky. The current deficit reduction plans are based on forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility on how much of the damage caused to the economy during the downturn of 2008-09 was permanent rather than temporary.
The OBR takes a pessimistic view. Normally, in the period after a recession there are several years in which growth can be above its long-term trend rate of 2.25-2.5% a year without any sign of inflationary pressures developing. That's because there is plenty of spare capacity to use up.
But the OBR believes the recession has impaired the supply side of the economy, particularly the financial sector. It thinks the output gap (another way of describing the amount of spare capacity) is just over 2% of GDP, which means the economy can only grow above trend for a short period before inflation starts to be a problem.
It is worth pointing out that the OBR's forecasting record has not exactly been unblemished. It was over-optimistic about growth when the economy was flat-lining, and it may be too gloomy now. If it is, and a larger chunk of the loss of output during the recession proves to be temporary, the economy will be able to grow above trend for longer. By the time the output gap has been closed, the higher tax revenues from stronger growth will have reduced the size of the budget deficit and there will not be the need for so much austerity.
But let's assume the OBR is right. What happens then? Well, Osborne made his intentions clear last week when he announced fresh cuts in departmental spending and a cap on all welfare payments other than pensions and jobseekers' benefits. He clearly has no intention of raising taxes. Indeed, the autumn statement includes plenty of giveaways – on fuel duties, marriage allowances and school meals – that will have to be funded out of smaller Whitehall budgets.
And while Osborne likes to draw a distinction between "scroungers" and "hard-working families", the fact is that many of these hard-working families rely on welfare – in the form of in-work benefits – to top up theirpoverty wages. The autumn statement provided a taste of what is to come when it froze work allowances for three years, the amount low-paid workers can earn before their benefits are withdrawn. This will save Osborne £600m a year but make poor families poorer.
This is quite a contrast from the last Labour government, which introduced the minimum wage and tax credits to help those on low earnings. The impact is well illustrated in a new paper by Christoph Lakner and Branko Milanovic, which looks at global income distribution from the fall of the Berlin wall to the Great Recession.
The study found that since the late 1980s, there has been a small fall in global inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient. (If everybody currently living on the planet had the same purchasing power Gini would be zero; if one person enjoyed all the riches Gini would be 100). But the fall has been modest with the two-point decline in the Gini to 70.5 almost entirely due to the growth of the middle class in China. It disappears completely once the authors make allowance for the under-reporting of the incomes of the rich.
Lakner and Milanovic also look at those groups that did not fare well in the two decades from 1988 to 2008. This includes the poorest in the US but not the UK, where the 10% of the population on the lowest incomes did almost as well in terms of annual income growth as the Chinese middle class. For this Gordon Brown deserves credit.
Osborne says Labour lost control of public spending. He wants "a government that lives within its means, in a country that pays its way in the world". His way of ensuring that the books balance involves pouring money into property speculation rather than productive investment, and by locking the UK into a low-productivity, low-investment, low-wage economy in which poverty rises and public services deteriorate.
Polls suggest voters are unhappy about falling living standards. Like Ed Miliband, they think this is a dead end. They are, though, yet to be convinced that the opposition has a better plan

EADS to cut more than 5,000 jobs and sell Paris headquarters

EADS Airbus Group
EADS will be renamed Airbus Group. Its factories in the UK are not expected to be a major focus of job cuts. Photograph: Stephane Mahe/Reuters
European aerospace group EADS is planning to cut thousands of jobs and sell its Paris headquarters as part of a large-scale restructuring programme.
The Airbus owner is expected to announce later on Monday that between 5,000 and 6,000 jobs will go to cut costs, according to reports in the French newspaper Le Figaro.
The cuts, which would represent around 4% of EADS's 143,000-strong workforce, would be met by voluntary redundancies and transfers, and by not replacing retiring workers or those at the end of temporary contracts, the newspaper said.
It is understood that an announcement will be made after markets close on Monday.
It follows the decision announced in July to rename the company Airbus Group from January 2014 and to split the group into three divisions.
Airbus Military, space division Astrium, and cyber-security business Cassidian will be merged into one defence and space division and headquartered in Munich as part of the plans.
The group's two other divisions will be Airbus, the commercial aircraft business, and Airbus Helicopters, comprising all commercial and military helicopter work. EADS said the restructuring process should be completed in the second half of 2014.
"Pooling the space and defence entities Airbus Military, Astrium and Cassidian is the group's response to the changing market environment with flat or even shrinking defence and space budgets in the western hemisphere," it said in July.
"This structural change will provide optimised market access, cost and market synergies and improved competitiveness overall."
The company's main bases are France, Germany, Spain and the UK, although it is thought Britain will not be a major focus for job cuts.
EADS employs around 17,500 people in the UK across 32 locations, with a turnover of almost £3bn.
Last year EADS's chief executive, Tom Enders, was forced to abandon a planned €35bn (£29bn) merger with British defence giant BAE Systemsafter German chancellor Angela Merkel personally blocked the deal

Stephen Hawking: A Brief History of Mine – TV review

Stephen Hawking
Stephen Hawking takes us on a personal journey through his life. Photograph: Jason Bye
There can't be many people in the world who can raise a room full of people to their feet just by entering it. I'm talking about people not just standing up, but applauding too. I'm sure Nelson Mandela, RIP, was one.Stephen Hawking, VIP, still is. It happens a lot here in Stephen Hawking: A Brief History of Mine (Channel 4, Saturday). Lecture halls, champagne receptions, just plain rooms – up they all get, and start clapping, applauding Stephen Hawking just for being Stephen Hawking. Of course, he merits it all, but it can't be good for a man, can it?
Hawking is taking us on a personal journey, through his life, yo-yoing back in time from the present. First, right back to his childhood. It was a happy, if slightly odd, one, with books everywhere and super-intellectual parents who encouraged their children to question everything and think big. An old school friend remembers being surprised by the topics of conversation around the dinner table at the Hawkings. They argued about theology, sexuality and the rights and wrongs of abortion.
Stephen's sister Mary remembers her little brother not just wiring her dolls' house, but plumbing it, too. A plumbed dolls' house! His passion for understanding how things work quickly grew – from toys to the universe. Mary is rather grand, and it makes you wonder what Stephen sounded like before he became ill.
There is no record of his original voice here – maybe there isn't anywhere. Fellow undergraduates remember his spontaneous humour though, which has never left; only the mechanism to deliver it has been damaged. He talks a lot about the frustration of wanting to communicate faster; it seems to be a bigger issue than the other problems that come with motor neurone disease, such as lack of mobility. And that makes sense – a supersonic wit with nowhere to go; a mind that understands so much in a man who gets such a kick out of passing on some of that to us, but with only limited means to do so. (Though the software is far better now than it was a few years ago).
There are other ironies in Hawking's life. That as his mind grew in confidence, his body was going into rapid decline. That an ailing body and voice actually led him to develop new ways of thinking. That time has always been against the man who understands time better than anyone else. That his discovery of Hawking radiation – which would come to unify relativity theory, quantum theory and thermodynamics – itself came at a time when his world outside work was coming apart and his first marriage was disappearing into a black hole.
Stephen Finnigan's fascinating film artfully splices together the three main strands of Hawking's life; his work, his private life and motor neurone disease. And Hawking talks so well, and openly and honestly about all three. There is something lovely about hearing perhaps the greatest living scientist talk about falling in love with his first wife: "Jane was beautiful, and gentle, and seemingly undaunted by the harsh reality of my illness."
Not that he was easy to live with, obviously. "He could be surrounded by children and not notice what was going on," Jane remembers, of the time when he was thinking about the behaviour of particles on the edge of black holes. "He was like Rodin's Thinker with his head in his hands, often accompanied by Wagner blaring out of the speakers. He used to drive me spare."
Hawking's children are about the one thing he doesn't touch on, and if I were one of them, I'd maybe feel a little hurt. On everything else – not working too hard at uni, marriage, black holes, another marriage, speech, space, a zero-gravity flight that temporarily stripped him of his disability, enjoying celebrity, Wagner – he's fabulous.
Oh yes, music: there's too much of it, in this film. When he is talking about identifying with Wagner, or when Jane is recounting the scene above, it is fine to have Wagner going on. Because that's what it's about. But there is music virtually the whole time, a tinkling piano mostly, nagging, interfering, irritating, trying to help us know what to think. So it goes all mournful about the time Hawking nearly died. Stop it! We're not that stupid.
Oh, and Richard Branson – always on the lookout for a bit of free publicity and maybe some credibility – sticking his oar, his blond mane and his hairy chin in, going on about his bloody space flights and giving Hawking a freebie; I could have done without that. Otherwise great.

Why Keanu Reeves's £90m flop is making us sad, too

Keanu Reeves in 47 Ronin
Keanu Reeves in 47 Ronin. Photograph: Sportsphoto Ltd/Allstar
Age: 49
  1. 47 Ronin
  2. Production year: 2013
  3. Cast: Hiroyuki Sanada, Keanu Reeves, Rinko Kikuchi
  4. More on this film
Appearance: sad
Oh, please. That "Sad Keanu" meme is so 2010. I don't know what you're talking about.
That photo of Keanu sitting on a bench eating a sandwich and looking glum that attracted amusing captions, spread across the internet like wildfire and inspired a Cheer up Keanu Day (June 15)? It was fun, but it's over. I know nothing of this. I was referring to the sadness surrounding Keanu Reeves's latest film.
Keanu Reeves is in films? Of course. The Canadian-American actor is the star of such blockbusters as Point Break, Speed and the Matrix trilogy.
What has he got to be sad about? His new film, 47 Ronin, is said to be a box-office flop.
Never heard of it. When did it come out? It doesn't open until Christmas Day.
How can it be a box-office flop before it opens? Technically, it can't, but producers are quietly warning investors that the film could lose as much as £90m.
What's wrong with it? For starters, it cost $225m to make. Advance ticket sales are low, and the film has already tanked in Japan, where it opened early. In the US, the movie is said to be suffering from insufficient "buzz" and "low consumer engagement scores."
I guess Reeves has a right to be down. Reports of the death of 47 Ronin may be premature – international films often struggle in Japan, and this one retells an old Japanese tale – but yes, forecasts are gloomy.
Well, I love Keanu – I'm rooting for him. Tell me it's a happy story, at least?
It's about a group of 18th-century samurai warriors wreaking revenge before their mass suicide, so I don't think there are too many jokes.
Sigh. I'm not going to see it now you've given away the ending. 
Sorry.
Do say: "It's Christmas, kids! Let's go see the samurai suicide movie!"
Don't say: "Cheer up, love. It may never happen

Edward Snowden voted Guardian person of the year 2013

Edward Snowden
In May Edward Snowden flew to Hong Kong where he gave journalists the material which blew the lid on the extent of US digital spying. Photograph: The Guardian/AFP/Getty Images
For the second year in a row, a young American whistleblower alarmed at the unfettered and at times cynical deployment of power by the world's foremost superpower has been voted the Guardian's person of the year.
Edward Snowden, who leaked an estimated 200,000 files that exposed the extensive and intrusive nature of phone and internet surveillance and intelligence gathering by the US and its western allies, was the overwhelming choice of more than 2,000 people who voted.
The NSA whistleblower garnered 1,445 votes. In a distant second, from a list of 10 candidates chosen by Guardian writers and editors, cameMarco Weber and Sini Saarela, the Greenpeace activists who spearheaded the oil rig protest over Russian Arctic drilling. They received 314 votes. Pope Francis gained 153 votes, narrowly ahead of blogger and anti-poverty campaigner Jack Monroe, who received 144. Snowden's victory was as decisive as Chelsea Manning's a year earlier.
It is strange to think now, but a little more than six months ago, virtually no one had heard of Snowden, and few people outside the US would have been able to identify what the initials NSA stood for. Thoughinternet privacy was beginning to emerge as an issue, few people had any idea of the extent to which governments and their secretive auxiliaries were able to trawl, sift, collect and scrutinise the personal digital footprints of millions of private individuals.
All that changed in May when Snowden left Hawaii for Hong Kong, where he met Guardian journalists Glenn Greenwald and Ewen MacAskill, and independent film-maker Laura Poitras, and handed over materials that blew the lid on spying technologies, some of which were truly stranger than fiction: a dragnet programme to scoop up digital activities direct from the servers of the biggest US tech companies; a tap on fibreoptic cables to gather huge amounts of data flowing in and out of the UK; a computer program to vacuum up phone records of millions of Americans; a codebreaking effort to crack the encryption system that underpins the safety and security of the internet.
In so doing, Snowden transformed his life, and not for the better. Forced to go on the run, he ended up in Moscow where he now lives in a curious Julian Assange-like limbo, unable to leave Russia for fear of arrest, extradition to the US and a prosecution that would threaten a long jail sentence, if Manning's term of 35 years is anything to go by.
It is this personal sacrifice, as much as his revelations, that impressed most readers who voted for him.
"He gave his future for the sake of democratic values, transparency, and freedom," said Miriam Bergholz. Colin Walker wrote: "We need people like him to have the courage to forget about their own life in the cause of other people's freedom. Let's face it, his life is over as even if he goes back to the US he will face decades in prison and the personal sacrifice he has made is immense." One commenter, identifying themselves as "irememberamerica", said he voted for Snowden "for his extraordinary and exemplary courage, and the historic value of his daring act. At every step, he has displayed an astonishing integrity and presence of mind. He is a great American and international patriot."
Some readers felt that the actions of the Greenpeace activists were as brave, if not braver, than Snowden's.
"Facing jail, as Snowden does, for defending privacy is one thing," wrote CaptainGrey. "Facing injury or even death for defending the planet, as Greenpeace activists often do, is another entirely," he said, in casting a vote for Weber and Saarela.
Others put in a good word for the pope, Waris Dirie and Monroe.
Iriscepero wrote: "[I am voting for] Waris Dirie for her work concerning female genital mutilation. It's an awful, brutal way of controlling females that carries significant health risks and it needs to end. I don't feel the topic gets the attention it needs because of the nationalities that are usually involved in the practice."

Final vote count

Marco Weber and Sini Saarela 314
Pope Francis 153
Jack Monroe 144
Waris Dirie 69
Satoshi Nakamoto 33
Kanye West 28
Andy Murray 22
Elon Musk 11

Spy agencies in covert push to infiltrate virtual world of online gaming

World of Warcraft
World of Warcraft: the NSA described games communities as a 'target-rich network' where potential terrorists could 'hide in plain sight'.
To the National Security Agency analyst writing a briefing to his superiors, the situation was clear: their current surveillance efforts were lacking something. The agency's impressive arsenal of cable taps and sophisticated hacking attacks was not enough. What it really needed was a horde of undercover Orcs.
That vision of spycraft sparked a concerted drive by the NSA and its UK sister agency GCHQ to infiltrate the massive communities playing onlinegames, according to secret documents disclosed by whistleblower Edward Snowden.
The files were obtained by the Guardian and are being published on Monday in partnership with the New York Times and ProPublica.
The agencies, the documents show, have built mass-collection capabilities against the Xbox Live console network, which has more than 48 million players. Real-life agents have been deployed into virtual realms, from those Orc hordes in World of Warcraft to the human avatars of Second Life. There were attempts, too, to recruit potential informants from the games' tech-friendly users.
Online gaming is big business, attracting tens of millions of users worldwide who inhabit their digital worlds as make-believe characters, living and competing with the avatars of other players. What the intelligence agencies feared, however, was that among these clans of elves and goblins, terrorists were lurking.
The NSA document, written in 2008 and titled Exploiting Terrorist Use of Games & Virtual Environments, stressed the risk of leaving games communities under-monitored, describing them as a "target-rich communications network" where intelligence targets could "hide in plain sight".
Games, the analyst wrote, "are an opportunity!". According to the briefing notes, so many different US intelligence agents were conducting operations inside games that a "deconfliction" group was required to ensure they weren't spying on, or interfering with, each other.
If properly exploited, games could produce vast amounts of intelligence, according to the NSA document. They could be used as a window for hacking attacks, to build pictures of people's social networks through "buddylists and interaction", to make approaches by undercover agents, and to obtain target identifiers (such as profile photos), geolocation, and collection of communications.
The ability to extract communications from talk channels in games would be necessary, the NSA paper argued, because of the potential for them to be used to communicate anonymously: Second Life was enabling anonymous texts and planning to introduce voice calls, while game noticeboards could, it states, be used to share information on the web addresses of terrorism forums.
Given that gaming consoles often include voice headsets, video cameras, and other identifiers, the potential for joining together biometric information with activities was also an exciting one.
But the documents contain no indication that the surveillance ever foiled any terrorist plots, nor is there any clear evidence that terror groups were using the virtual communities to communicate as the intelligence agencies predicted.
The operations raise concerns about the privacy of gamers. It is unclear how the agencies accessed their data, or how many communications were collected. Nor is it clear how the NSA ensured that it was not monitoring innocent Americans whose identity and nationality may have been concealed behind their virtual avatar.
The California-based producer of World of Warcraft said neither the NSA nor GCHQ had sought its permission to gather intelligence inside the game. "We are unaware of any surveillance taking place," said a spokesman for Blizzard Entertainment. "If it was, it would have been done without our knowledge or permission." 
Microsoft declined to comment on the latest revelations, as did Philip Rosedale, the founder of Second Life and former CEO of Linden Lab, the game's operator. The company's executives did not respond to requests for comment.
The NSA declined to comment on the surveillance of games. A spokesman for GCHQ said the agency did not "confirm or deny" the revelations but added: "All GCHQ's work is carried out in accordance with a strict legal and policy framework which ensures that its activities are authorised, necessary and proportionate, and there is rigorous oversight, including from the secretary of state, the interception and intelligence services commissioners and the intelligence and security committee."
Though the spy agencies might have been relatively late to virtual worlds and the communities forming there, once the idea had been mooted, they joined in enthusiastically.
In May 2007, the then-chief operating officer of Second Life gave a "brown-bag lunch" address at the NSA explaining how his game gave the government "the opportunity to understand the motivation, context and consequent behaviours of non-Americans through observation, without leaving US soil".
One problem the paper's unnamed author and others in the agency faced in making their case – and avoiding suspicion that their goal was merely to play computer games at work without getting fired – was the difficulty of proving terrorists were even thinking about using games to communicate.
A 2007 invitation to a secret internal briefing noted "terrorists use online games – but perhaps not for their amusement. They are suspected of using them to communicate secretly and to transfer funds." But the agencies had no evidence to support their suspicions.
The same still seemed to hold true a year later, albeit with a measure of progress: games data that had been found in connection with internet protocol addresses, email addresses and similar information linked to terrorist groups.
"Al-Qaida terrorist target selectors and … have been found associated with Xbox Live, Second Life, World of Warcraft, and other GVEs [games and virtual environments]," the document notes. "Other targets include Chinese hackers, an Iranian nuclear scientist, Hizballah, and Hamas members."
However, that information wasn not enough to show terrorists are hiding out as pixels to discuss their next plot. Such data could merely mean someone else in an internet cafe was gaming, or a shared computer had previously been used to play games.
That lack of knowledge of whether terrorists were actually plotting online emerges in the document's recommendations: "The amount of GVEs in the world is growing but the specific ones that CT [counter-terrorism] needs to be methodically discovered and validated," it stated. "Only then can we find evidence that GVEs are being used for operational uses."
Not actually knowing whether terrorists were playing games was not enough to keep the intelligence agencies out of them, however. According to the document, GCHQ had already made a "vigorous effort" to exploit games, including "exploitation modules" against Xbox Live and World of Warcraft.
That effort, based in the agency's New Mission Development Centre in the Menwith Hill air force base in North Yorkshire, was already paying dividends by May 2008.
At the request of GCHQ, the NSA had begun a deliberate effort to extract World of Warcraft metadata from their troves of intelligence, and trying to link "accounts, characters and guilds" to Islamic extremism and arms dealing efforts. A later memo noted that among the game's active subscribers were "telecom engineers, embassy drivers, scientists, the military and other intelligence agencies".
The UK agency did not stop at World of Warcraft: by September a memo noted GCHQ had "successfully been able to get the discussions between different game players on Xbox Live".
Meanwhile, the FBI, CIA, and the Defense Humint Service were all running human intelligence operations – undercover agents – within Second Life. In fact, so crowded were the virtual worlds with staff from the different agencies, that there was a need to try to "deconflict" their efforts – or, in other words, to make sure each agency wasn't just duplicating what the others were doing.
By the end of 2008, such efforts had produced at least one usable piece of intelligence, according to the documents: following the successful takedown of a website used to trade stolen credit card details, the fraudsters moved to Second Life – and GCHQ followed, having gained their first "operational deployment" into the virtual world. This, they noted, put them in touch with an "avatar [game character] who helpfully volunteered information on the target group's latest activities".
Second Life continued to occupy the intelligence agencies' thoughts throughout 2009. One memo noted the game's economy was "essentially unregulated" and so "will almost certainly be used as a venue for terrorist laundering and will, with certainty, be used for terrorist propaganda and recruitment".
In reality, Second Life's surreal and uneven virtual world failed to attract or maintain the promised mass-audience, and attention (and its user base) waned, though the game lives on.
The agencies had other concerns about games, beyond their potential use by terrorists to communicate. Much like the pressure groups that worry about the effect of computer games on the minds of children, the NSA expressed concerns that games could be used to "reinforce prejudices and cultural stereotypes", noting that Hezbollah had produced a game called Special Forces 2.
According to the document, Hezbollah's "press section acknowledges [the game] is used for recruitment and training", serving as a "radicalising medium" with the ultimate goal of becoming a "suicide martyr". Despite the game's disturbing connotations, the "fun factor" of the game cannot be discounted, it states. As Special Forces 2 retails for $10, it concludes, the game also serves to "fund terrorist operations".
Hezbollah is not, however, the only organisation to have considered using games for recruiting. As the NSA document acknowledges: they got the idea from the US army.
"America's Army is a US army-produced game that is free [to] download from its recruitment page," says the NSA, noting the game is "acknowledged to be so good at this the army no longer needs to use it for recruitment, they use it for training"