Friday, 8 November 2013

How close Cristiano Ronaldo was to signing for Juventus

How close Cristiano Ronaldo was to signing for Juventus

Legend has it that it was Sir Alex Ferguson's own Manchester United players who persuaded the record-breaking former manager to sign Cristiano Ronaldo. 'You've got to get him, boss,' they told the 13-time league champion after losing 3-1 to a Ronaldo-inspired Sporting Lisbon in a pre-season friendly in 2003.Of course, Ferguson was not a man to be forced into anything, and much of the due diligence had already been done. Still, it was that night in Lisbon which had put the seal on the storied manager's decision to sign the 18-year-old Portuguese for €15 million (£12.6m).Six years on, Ronaldo was the biggest thing in football. A record of 118 goals in 282 games in Manchester United colours, including 42 in 49 in a Ballon d'Or-clinching 2007-08 campaign, persuaded Real Madrid to part with a world-record £80m fee to blast him even further into superstardom.But winding back to 2003, nobody appeared to know at the time that Ronaldo very nearly hadn't played in that friendly against United.
It could have been Marcelo Salas wearing the green and white hoops instead, if only Juventus had had their way.During that same summer, the Bianconeri had made their move for Ronaldo. Indeed, they had a deal agreed, according to former director-general Luciano Moggi.Moggi told Sphera Sports: 'We had everything signed with Sporting Lisbon. We had agreed a swap deal with Cristiano in exchange for Marcelo Salas, who accepted the move, then went to Portugal for talks, but eventually backed out of the deal and chose to go to Argentina with River Plate instead.'Juve knew that Salas was their only real hope of making the swap deal happen due to a lack of funds in the club coffers but the Chilean had made up his mind and South America was his destination, leaving Ronaldo at a loose end in Lisbon.'That's when Manchester United intervened,' continues Moggi. 'They were offering millions and we had no money to compete, so I had to cancel the contract. Cristiano Ronaldo could have joined Juventus when he was 18.'Small details make big differences in football and, had Salas not backed out of the deal a decade ago, Juventus would have had their man.
Perhaps, 10 years on, it would have been Madrid and not the Bianconeri who were left demoralised by Ronaldo's impact in the Champions League Group B clash between the two sides at the Santiago Bernabeu in October. And right now it would be Carlo Ancelotti fretting about how to stop the in-form attacker rather than Antonio Conte ahead of Tuesday night's return.Maybe he would have since followed in the footsteps of Zinedine Zidane by making the same switch from Juve to Real Madrid at some point anyway, clinching a transfer to his beloved Blancos via a different conduit to the one which saw him break records in 2009. But what is certain is that Salas changed football history in 2003, blocking a deal which would have almost certainly seen Ronaldo become a Juve legend.Many of a Manchester United persuasion will tell you that Ferguson helped to make Ronaldo what he is today. Others put their faith in the Portuguese, saying the 28-year-old always had the talent to reach the levels he has scaled during his career, regardless of whether or not he had stopped off in Manchester.In an era dominated by the names Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, one of the world’s star duo could easily have been making waves in black and white stripes rather than the famous white of Madrid. If only Juve had had a spare €15m when it had mattered.Follow Kris Voakes on

Morata: My time will come at Real Madrid

Morata: My time will come at Real Madrid
Real Madrid forward Alvaro Morata insists he is enjoying life at the club and is not disheartened at being left out of the squad for the Champions League meeting with Juventus.
The 21-year-old has made nine apperances in all competitions for Carlo Ancelotti's side so far this season, scoring one goal, and has endeared himself to many of the Santiago Bernabeu faithful during Karim Benzema's inconsistent early-season form.
Despite being overlooked for the 2-2 draw in Turin, Morata has stressed he is relishing life at the club and is confident he will quickly surpass his tally of 16 appearances in the whole of the 2012-13 season.
'I'm not disappointed at all,' Morata told AS. 'Last year I played 16 games and in this I've managed nine, so hopefully I'll exceed that figure.
'I think I'm young and that my time has not yet come. My goal is to keep learning, and I want to be prepared for when it does.'
Morata had an impressive goalscoring record as a youngster, scoring 45 goals in 83 appearances for the Madrid Castilla side since making his debut in 2010. He was also part of the 

Ramsey responds to Rooney: Arsenal will last the title pace

Ramsey responds to Rooney: Arsenal will last the title pace
Aaron Ramsey insists Arsenal have the ability to maintain a Premier League title challenge this season.
On Wednesday, Wayne Rooney claimed Arsene Wenger’s side have faded in their recent attempts to compete alongside Manchester United.
'We'll have to wait and see where they are in March,' the striker said. 'We've seen before that they've been in the top two until February and March and then they've faded off, so it's down to them to try to stay there.'
But Ramsey believes Arsenal’s record in the second half of the season proves the club have the ability to keep pace with their fellow title challengers.
'I think the boss said the other day that, from January, we’re the team in the league who have picked up the most points,' Ramsey told reporters.
'I don’t think our form has been that bad after Christmas. In the last few seasons, we’ve had to dig in and get a load of points to get fourth place. We’ve managed to do that.
'Our biggest problem over the last few seasons has been starting off well. But we’ve managed to do that this season.
'If we get ourselves into a strong position then our ability to get as many points as we can in the run-in has been second to none.
'We had a fantastic run-in to last season and after the disappointment of the opening game of the season we managed to build on that and keep it going.
'If we can do that now and keep it going up until Christmas then we know that we have the ability to compete. So far we’ve shown we’ve got what it takes.'
Arsenal, who are five points clear at the top of the Premier League, travel to Old Trafford to face Manchester United on Sunday and Ramsey has urged his team-mates to prove their credentials against David Moyes’ men.
'We’ve got a massive game now at Manchester United and in the past few seasons we’ve struggled to go there and get a good result so hopefully we’ll feel a lot more confident and this will be the time when we do manage to do that,' he said.

Thursday, 7 November 2013

Rjukan sun: the Norwegian town that does it with mirrors

Rjukan's market square basks in the light beamed down by the three mirrors.
Rjukan's market square basks in the light beamed down by the three mirrors. Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian
On the market square in Rjukan stands a statue of the town's founder, a noted Norwegian engineer and industrialist called Sam Eyde, sporting a particularly fine moustache. One hand thrust in trouser pocket, the other grasping a tightly rolled drawing, the great man stares northwards across the square at an almost sheer mountainside in front of him.
Behind him, to the south, rises the equally sheer 1,800-metre peak known as Gaustatoppen. Between the mountains, strung out along the narrow Vestfjord valley, lies the small but once mighty town that Eyde built in the early years of the last century, to house the workers for his factories.
He was plainly a smart guy, Eyde. He harnessed the power of the 100-metre Rjukanfossen waterfall to generate hydro-electricity in what was, at the time, the world's biggest power plant. He pioneered new technologies – one of which bears his name – to produce saltpetre by oxidising nitrogen from air, and made industrial quantities of hydrogen by water electrolysis.
But there was one thing he couldn't do: change the elevation of the sun. Deep in its east-west valley, surrounded by high mountains, Rjukan and its 3,400 inhabitants are in shadow for half the year. During the day, from late September to mid-March, the town, three hours north-west of Oslo, is not dark (well, it is almost, in December and January, but then so is most of Norway), but it's certainly not bright either. A bit ... flat. A bit subdued, a bit muted, a bit mono.
Since last week, however, Eyde's statue has gazed out upon a sight that even the eminent engineer might have found startling. High on the mountain opposite, 450 metres above the town, three large, solar-powered, computer-controlled mirrors steadily track the movement of the sun across the sky, reflecting its rays down on to the square and bathing it in bright sunlight. Rjukan – or at least, a small but vital part of Rjukan – is no longer stuck where the sun don't shine.
"It's the sun!" grins Ingrid Sparbo, disbelievingly, lifting her face to the light and closing her eyes against the glare. A retired secretary, Sparbo has lived all her life in Rjukan and says people "do sort of get used to the shade. You end up not thinking about it, really. But this ... This is so warming. Not just physically, but mentally. It's mentally warming."
Two young mothers wheel their children into the square, turn, and briefly bask: a quick hit. On a freezing day, an elderly couple sit wide-eyed on one of the half-dozen newly installed benches, smiling at the warmth on their faces. Children beam. Lots of people take photographs. A shop assistant, Silje Johansen, says it's "awesome. Just awesome."
Pushing his child's buggy, electrical engineer Eivind Toreid is more cautious. "It's a funny thing," he says. "Not real sunlight, but very like it. Like a spotlight. I'll go if I'm free and in town, yes. Especially in autumn and in the weeks before the sun comes back. Those are the worst: you look just a short way up the mountainside and the sun is right there, so close you can almost touch it. But not here."
Pensioners Valborg and Eigil Lima have driven from Stavanger – five long hours on the road – specially to see it. Heidi Fieldheim, who lives in Oslo now but spent six years in Rjukan with her husband, a local man, says she heard all about it on the radio. "But it's far more than I expected," she says. "This will bring much happiness."
Across the road in the Nyetider cafe, sporting – by happy coincidence – a particularly fine set of mutton chops, sits the man responsible for this unexpected access to happiness. Martin Andersen is a 40-year-old artist and lifeguard at the municipal baths who, after spells in Berlin, Paris, Mali and Oslo, pitched up in Rjukan in the summer of 2001.
The first inkling of an artwork Andersen dubbed the Solspeil, or sun mirror, came to him as the month of September began to fade: "Every day, we would take our young child for a walk in the buggy," he says, "and every day I realised we were having to go a little further down the valley to find the sun." By 28 September, Andersen realised, the sun completely disappears from Rjukan's market square. The occasion of its annual reappearance, lighting up the bridge across the river by the old fire station, is a date indelibly engraved in the minds of all Rjukan residents: 12 March.
And throughout the seemingly endless intervening months, Andersen says: "We'd look up and see blue sky above, and the sun high on the mountain slopes, but the only way we could get to it was to go out of town. The brighter the day, the darker it was down here. And it's sad, a town that people have to leave in order to feel the sun."
Sunlight reflects off the three giant mirrors.Sunlight reflects off the three giant mirrors. Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian
A hundred years ago, Eyde had already grasped the gravity of the problem. Researching his own plan, Andersen discovered that, as early as 1913, Eyde was considering a suggestion by one of his factory workers for a system of mountain-top mirrors to redirect sunlight into the valley below.
The industrialist eventually abandoned the plan for want of adequate technology, but soon afterwards his company, Norsk Hydro, paid for the construction of a cable car to carry the long-suffering townsfolk, for a modest sum, nearly 500m higher up the mountain and into the sunlight. (Built in 1928, the Krossobanen is still running, incidentally; £10 for the return trip. The view is majestic and the coffee at the top excellent. A brass plaque in the ticket office declares the facility a gift from the company "to the people of Rjukan, because for six months of the year, the sun does not shine in the bottom of the valley".)
Andersen unearthed a partially covered sports stadium in Arizona that was successfully using small mirrors to keep its grass growing. He learned that in the Middle East and other sun-baked regions of the world, vast banks of hi-tech tracking mirrors called heliostats concentrate sufficient reflected sunlight to heat steam turbines and drive whole power plants. He persuaded the town hall to come up with the cash to allow him to develop his project further. He contacted an expert in the field, Jonny Nersveen, who did the maths and told him it could probably work. He visited Viganella, an Italian village that installed a similar sun mirror in 2006.
And 12 years after he first dreamed of his Solspeil, a German company specialising in so-called CSP – concentrated solar power – helicoptered in the three 17 sq m glass mirrors that now stand high above the market square in Rjukan. "It took," he says, "a bit longer than we'd imagined." First, the municipality wasn't used to dealing with this kind of project: "There's no rubber stamp for a sun mirror." But Andersen also wanted to be sure it was right – that Rjukan's sun mirror would do what it was intended to do.
Viganella's single polished steel mirror, he says, lights a much larger area, but with a far weaker, more diffuse light. "I wanted a smaller, concentrated patch of sunlight: a special sunlit spot in the middle of town where people could come for a quick five minutes in the sun." The result, you would have to say, is pretty much exactly that: bordered on one side by the library and town hall, and on the other by the tourist office, the 600 sq ms of Rjukan's market square, to be comprehensively remodelled next year in celebration, now bathes in a focused beam of bright sunlight fully 80-90% as intense as the original.
Their efforts monitored by webcams up on the mountain and down in the square, their movement dictated by computer in a Bavarian town outside Munich, the heliostats generate the solar power they need to gradually tilt and rotate, following the sun on its brief winter dash across the sky.
It really works. Even the objectors – and there were, in town, plenty of them; petitions and letter-writing campaigns and a Facebook page organised against what a large number of locals saw initially as a vanity project and, above all, a criminal waste of money – now seem largely won over.
A man holds his baby up to the light reflected by the mirrors.A man holds his baby up to the light reflected by the mirrors. Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian
"I was strongly against it," admits Nils Eggerud, a Norsk Hydro employee for 50 years and now retired. Like many others, he felt the money could have been better spent elsewhere – on a couple of extra carers to look after Rjukan's old people, perhaps, or improved school facilities, cycle paths, a bit of rural road resurfacing.
"And I still have my doubts about the ongoing maintenance costs," he cautions. "What will they be, who will pay them? But ... Well, it does feel nice, standing here. And really, you just have to look at the people's faces."
Anette Oien, too, was "deeply sceptical" to start with. Today, though, she marches cheerily across Sam Eyde Street for all the world as if heading for the beach, sits on a bench, lights up a cigarette, and lifts her face to the light. "I miss the sun here in winter terribly," she says. "It can be so hard. This is the light I long for."
Odd, though, the strength of that initial opposition. Beyond the valley, in Oslo and much further afield, Rjukan's hi-tech sun mirror has kindled nothing but enthusiasm; the project's official opening last week, complete with shades, sun-loungers, cocktails and beach volleyball, made newspaper headlines and news bulletins around the world. But Rjukan itself, until then, was stolidly unimpressed. Andersen's theory, which he readily admits "may not prove very popular", is that it wasn't about money at all. (In any case, he points out, helped by assorted government grants and a lump sum from Norsk Hydro, the municipality needed to find just 1m krone – £100,000 – of the mirror's total 5m krone cost.)
"What it was, I think," he says, "is that living in the shade must make you afraid to dream of the sun. That's the only way I can explain the resistance: like the valley walls, minds without sun become somehow a little bit narrower."
In his office overlooking the square, Rjukan's energetic young mayor, Steinar Bergsland, is interested not so much in the cost but in the benefits the mirror might bring to the town. Thanks to sound planning and government investment, Rjukan has survived the loss of much of its original heavy industry relatively unscathed. But the small town could do with the money.
Already, Bergsland says, visitor numbers are up for the time of year and last weekend Rjukan's shopkeepers reported their takings following suit. Only this morning, the mayor took a call from a hi-tech company interested in relocating to Rjukkan, attracted by the cutting-edge technology on view at the top of the mountain and the publicity it has attracted.
"This is a powerful symbol for Rjukan," Bergsland says. "The whole history of this town is about new and crazy ideas; about Sam Eyde saying: 'OK, I'm going to tame the water and generate power and build a town and make a product from air and water that the whole world will buy.' This fits."
And seen against the municipality's 650m krone annual budget, he points out, 1m krone really wasn't very much to pay for something that "gives us a far, far better chance of raising the money we need for better schools and more nursing care. And just look out of the window. Look at those happy faces. Now it's actually here, people love it."
Few on the streets seem to dissent (although Tarjei Steffensen Stortland, a 16-year-old student, still reckons the roads round where he lives could do with some attention). And Rjukan, best known for the wartime heroics of 12 SOE-trained Norwegian commandos who in 1943 destroyed a Nazi-occupied Norsk Hydro heavy water plant at nearby Vermok, thwarting Hitler's atomic bomb ambitions, undeniably has a new claim to fame.
But is the Solspeil, as it was at least originally conceived, art? "The people here don't see it that way," says Daniel Paida Larsen, a Rjukan-born, Berlin-based artist and close friend of Andersen's. "They see it – and, thankfully, now welcome it – as a technical project. Or a marketing tool."
But the sun mirror, nonetheless, is art, he says. "I don't know how exactly I'd define it," Larsen says. "An installation? A sculpture? It makes me think about how we need the sun, what happens to light when you reflect it. But what's really special is that it goes so deep into the public sphere. It touches something absolutely fundamental in this town."
At high school in Rjukan, Larsen remembers "walking down the street and looking up and seeing sunshine and blue sky and thinking: why can't I be there?" In the end, he says, "the only way to cope is to ignore that. To survive here in winter, you have to ignore the possibility of the sun."
But no longer. Now there's the Solspeil. "A work of art," Larsen says, "with a real, vital function, fulfilling a basic need in people's lives." Down on the square, Ingunn Sparbo might not put it in quite those terms, but she can't agree more.
"Look at this!" she says, almost beside herself. "Who'd have thought it? I've stepped out to get a bit of sun."

Left-field science explains why Messi's better than Ronaldo


Lionel Messi has a gene that makes him more creative and inventive out on the pitch than Cristiano Ronaldo. This is the conclusion reached in a study conducted by the universities of Oxford, St Andrews and Bristol, in conjunction with several Australian institutions. The research shows that left-footed footballers have the edge over their right-footed counterparts.
Players who favour their left foot have inverted brain hemisphere functions, which gives them an extra dose of unpredictability. The wizardry of the likes of David Silva, Leo Messi, Gareth Bale, Diego Maradona and Ryan Giggs, amongst many others, would appear to back up this theory.
Indeed, the magic words "I'm left-footed" have long been greeted like manna from heaven by scouts and coaches dealing with young players at trials – at the very least, they often promise that you are going to see something different.
So, if you're one of the millions of kids who play football across the world and you're a leftie, now you have bragging rights over your mates: you can tell them that the way you play is naturally more original than those who rely on their right foot. As science shows, the secret is in your DNA.
This originality can make itself felt in a whole host of scenarios, including left-footed players' ability to come up with creative ideas and solutions during the course of a match, invent new tricks, flicks and skills and even capitalise on goalscoring chances more quickly.

Isco falls by the wayside

Isco falls by the wayside
From starter status to reserve, Isco, who started the season stockpiling goals, praise, applause and headlines, has become the main casualty of Ancelotti's formation change and his definitive choice of the 4-3-3.
While 'Carletto' was flirting with a variety of systems over the course of the first eight games, Isco was a mainstay in the starting line-up; since he decided on a tactical change against FC Copenhagen, the Golden Boy has been a regular on the bench.
The former Málaga player, with the impetus of a summer break cut short by the Under-21s European Championships, hit the ground running to start the season. His spectacular form helped justify the sale of Özil. "With Isco and Bale, there's no place for Özil", was the word from the offices at the Bernabéu.
Isco scored 4 goals in the first five games of the season. He had the Bernabéu at his feet. He was on course to be a contender for the 'Pichichi' (top league goalscorer), but he began to run out of steam. He has not scored since the fifth league game of the season, against Getafe at the Santiago Bernabéu stadium, and has now gone seven consecutive league games without hitting the target. His last full match came a week earlier, against Villarreal on 14th September.
Isco's performance statistics look even worse for the Champions League. The Golden Boy scored in Turkey against Galatasaray, in his continental competition debut with Real Madrid, but he has only played 105 minutes out of a possible total of 360.

Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will:BBC

“I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan.” Gary Samore, until March 2013 US President Barack Obama’s counter-proliferation adviser
Gary Samore

Saudi nuclear weapons ‘on order’ from Pakistan

Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of sources have told BBC Newsnight.
While the kingdom’s quest has often been set in the context of countering Iran’s atomic programme, it is now possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more quickly than the Islamic republic.
Earlier this year, a senior Nato decision maker told me that he had seen intelligence reporting that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting ready for delivery.
Last month Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told a conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, “the Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring.”
Since 2009, when King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia warned visiting US special envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross that if Iran crossed the threshold, “we will get nuclear weapons”, the kingdom has sent the Americans numerous signals of its intentions.
Gary Samore, until March 2013 President Barack Obama’s counter-proliferation adviser, has told Newsnight:
Gary SamoreGary Samore served as President Barack Obama’s WMD tsar
“I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan.”

“Start Quote

What did we think the Saudis were giving us all that money for? It wasn’t charity”
End Quote Senior Pakistani official
The story of Saudi Arabia’s project – including the acquisition of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads over long ranges – goes back decades.
In the late 1980s they secretly bought dozens of CSS-2 ballistic missiles from China.
These rockets, considered by many experts too inaccurate for use as conventional weapons, were deployed 20 years ago.
This summer experts at defence publishers Jane’s reported the completion of a new Saudi CSS-2 base with missile launch rails aligned with Israel and Iran.
It has also been clear for many years that Saudi Arabia has given generous financial assistance to Pakistan’s defence sector, including, western experts allege, to its missile and nuclear labs.
Visits by the then Saudi defence minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al Saud to the Pakistani nuclear research centre in 1999 and 2002 underlined the closeness of the defence relationship.
Saudi Arabia’s undisclosed missile siteDefence publisher Jane’s revealed the existence of Saudi Arabia’s third and undisclosed intermediate-range ballistic missile site, approximately 200 km southwest of Riyadh
In its quest for a strategic deterrent against India, Pakistan co-operated closely with China which sold them missiles and provided the design for a nuclear warhead.
The Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan was accused by western intelligence agencies of selling atomic know-how and uranium enrichment centrifuges to Libya and North Korea.
AQ Khan is also believed to have passed the Chinese nuclear weapon design to those countries. This blueprint was for a device engineered to fit on the CSS-2 missile, i.e the same type sold to Saudi Arabia.
Because of this circumstantial evidence, allegations of a Saudi-Pakistani nuclear deal started to circulate even in the 1990s, but were denied by Saudi officials.
They noted that their country had signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and called for a nuclear-free Middle East, pointing to Israel’s possession of such weapons.
The fact that handing over atom bombs to a foreign government could create huge political difficulties for Pakistan, not least with the World Bank and other donors, added to scepticism about those early claims.

“Start Quote

Simon Henderson
The Saudis speak about Iran and nuclear matters very seriously. They don’t bluff on this issue”
End Quote Simon Henderson Director of Global Gulf and Energy Policy Program, Washington Institute
In Eating the Grass, his semi-official history of the Pakistani nuclear program, Major General Feroz Hassan Khan wrote that Prince Sultan’s visits to Pakistan’s atomic labs were not proof of an agreement between the two countries. But he acknowledged, “Saudi Arabia provided generous financial support to Pakistan that enabled the nuclear program to continue.”
Whatever understandings did or did not exist between the two countries in the 1990s, it was around 2003 that the kingdom started serious strategic thinking about its changing security environment and the prospect of nuclear proliferation.
A paper leaked that year by senior Saudi officials mapped out three possible responses – to acquire their own nuclear weapons, to enter into an arrangement with another nuclear power to protect the kingdom, or to rely on the establishment of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East.
It was around the same time, following the US invasion of Iraq, that serious strains in the US/Saudi relationship began to show themselves, says Gary Samore.
The Saudis resented the removal of Saddam Hussein, had long been unhappy about US policy on Israel, and were growing increasingly concerned about the Iranian nuclear program.
In the years that followed, diplomatic chatter about Saudi-Pakistani nuclear cooperation began to increase.
In 2007, the US mission in Riyadh noted they were being asked questions by Pakistani diplomats about US knowledge of “Saudi-Pakistani nuclear cooperation”.
The unnamed Pakistanis opined that “it is logical for the Saudis to step in as the physical ‘protector’” of the Arab world by seeking nuclear weapons, according to one of the State Department cables posted by Wikileaks.
By the end of that decade Saudi princes and officials were giving explicit warnings of their intention to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran did.
Having warned the Americans in private for years, last year Saudi officials in Riyadh escalated it to a public warning, telling a journalist from the Times “it would be completely unacceptable to have Iran with a nuclear capability and not the kingdom”.
But were these statements bluster, aimed at forcing a stronger US line on Iran, or were they evidence of a deliberate, long-term plan for a Saudi bomb? Both, is the answer I have received from former key officials.
One senior Pakistani, speaking on background terms, confirmed the broad nature of the deal – probably unwritten – his country had reached with the kingdom and asked rhetorically “what did we think the Saudis were giving us all that money for? It wasn’t charity.”
Another, a one-time intelligence officer from the same country, said he believed “the Pakistanis certainly maintain a certain number of warheads on the basis that if the Saudis were to ask for them at any given time they would immediately be transferred.”
As for the seriousness of the Saudi threat to make good on the deal, Simon Henderson, Director of the Global Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told BBC Newsnight “the Saudis speak about Iran and nuclear matters very seriously. They don’t bluff on this issue.”
Talking to many serving and former officials about this over the past few months, the only real debate I have found is about how exactly the Saudi Arabians would redeem the bargain with Pakistan.
Some think it is a cash-and-carry deal for warheads, the first of those options sketched out by the Saudis back in 2003; others that it is the second, an arrangement under which Pakistani nuclear forces could be deployed in the kingdom.
Gary Samore, considering these questions at the centre of the US intelligence and policy web, at the White House until earlier this year, thinks that what he calls, “the Nato model”, is more likely.
However ,”I think just giving Saudi Arabia a handful of nuclear weapons would be a very provocative action”, says Gary Samore.
He adds: “I’ve always thought it was much more likely – the most likely option if Pakistan were to honour any agreement would be for be for Pakistan to send its own forces, its own troops armed with nuclear weapons and with delivery systems to be deployed in Saudi Arabia”.
This would give a big political advantage to Pakistan since it would allow them to deny that they had simply handed over the weapons, but implies a dual key system in which they would need to agree in order for ‘Saudi Arabian’ “nukes” to be launched.
Others I have spoken to think this is not credible, since Saudi Arabia, which regards itself as the leader of the broader Sunni Islamic ‘ummah’ or community, would want complete control of its nuclear deterrent, particularly at this time of worsening sectarian confrontation with Shia Iran.
Map of Saudi Arabia
And it is Israeli information – that Saudi Arabia is now ready to take delivery of finished warheads for its long-range missiles – that informs some recent US and Nato intelligence reporting. Israel of course shares Saudi Arabia’s motive in wanting to worry the US into containing Iran.
Amos Yadlin declined to be interviewed for our BBC Newsnight report, but told me by email that “unlike other potential regional threats, the Saudi one is very credible and imminent.”
Even if this view is accurate there are many good reasons for Saudi Arabia to leave its nuclear warheads in Pakistan for the time being.
Doing so allows the kingdom to deny there are any on its soil. It avoids challenging Iran to cross the nuclear threshold in response, and it insulates Pakistan from the international opprobrium of being seen to operate an atomic cash-and-carry.
These assumptions though may not be safe for much longer. The US diplomatic thaw with Iran has touched deep insecurities in Riyadh, which fears that any deal to constrain the Islamic republic’s nuclear program would be ineffective.
Earlier this month the Saudi intelligence chief and former ambassador to Washington Prince Bandar announced that the kingdom would be distancing itself more from the US.
While investigating this, I have heard rumours on the diplomatic grapevine, that Pakistan has recently actually delivered Shaheen mobile ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia, minus warheads.
These reports, still unconfirmed, would suggest an ability to deploy nuclear weapons in the kingdom, and mount them on an effective, modern, missile system more quickly than some analysts had previously imagined.
In Egypt, Saudi Arabia showed itself ready to step in with large-scale backing following the military overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi’s government.
There is a message here for Pakistan, of Riyadh being ready to replace US military assistance or World Bank loans, if standing with Saudi Arabia causes a country to lose them.
Newsnight contacted both the Pakistani and Saudi governments. The Pakistan Foreign Ministry has described our story as “speculative, mischievous and baseless”.
It adds: “Pakistan is a responsible nuclear weapon state with robust command and control structures and comprehensive export controls.”
The Saudi embassy in London has also issued a statement pointing out that the Kingdom is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and has worked for a nuclear free Middle East.
But it also points out that the UN’s “failure to make the Middle East a nuclear free zone is one of the reasons the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia rejected the offer of a seat on the UN Security Council”.
It says the Saudi Foreign Minister has stressed that this lack of international action “has put the region under the threat of a time bomb that cannot easily be defused by manoeuvring around it”.